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LLY · Forward model · Immunology · Ricks case

What has to happen in Immunology

Model as of

This page changes Immunology inside the complete LLY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

LLY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $855.29 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.45B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $12.50B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The CEO's own framing, priced. Growth continues AND the company keeps spending into it - new manufacturing capacity, and pipeline bought through business development rather than harvested. In model terms that is trend growth 0.6 points a quarter above base with 2.5 points less margin, because the acquired in-process R&D charge that funds the pipeline is a permanent cost rather than the one-off it is presented as. It is worth more than base and less than bull, and it is the only case here in which faster growth costs something.

Immunology

Basis quarter$1.42B
Final quarter$2.45B
Implied CAGR+12%
Final revenue mix6%

Taltz plus the Omvoh and Ebglyss launches. At $1,417M it is 6.2% of revenue and grew 12.9% year over year, the fastest of the non-cardiometabolic lines, and all of that growth sits in the launches rather than in Taltz.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.36B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.54B Estimated
2026 Q1 $1.20B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.42B Reported
TaltzOmvohEbglyssother immunology
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3.0% deseasonalised, just under the 3.1% four-quarter average on that series and below the 3.8% six-quarter average.
Immunology

Latest: $2.45B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $834M
2024Q2 $1.08B
2024Q3 $1.19B
2024Q4 $1.29B
2025Q1 $1.09B
2025Q2 $1.26B
2025Q3 $1.36B
2025Q4 $1.54B
2026Q1 $1.20B
2026Q2 $1.42B
2026Q3E $1.56B
2026Q4E $1.72B
2027Q1E $1.35B
2027Q2E $1.62B
2027Q3E $1.77B
2027Q4E $1.95B
2028Q1E $1.52B
2028Q2E $1.82B
2028Q3E $1.99B
2028Q4E $2.18B
2029Q1E $1.70B
2029Q2E $2.02B
2029Q3E $2.20B
2029Q4E $2.41B
2030Q1E $1.87B
2030Q2E $2.23B
2030Q3E $2.43B
2030Q4E $2.65B
2031Q1E $2.06B
2031Q2E $2.45B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonality [0.853, 0.991, 1.053, 1.123] is a 15% Q1 trough and a 12% Q4 peak, the classic US specialty-pharmacy gross-to-net pattern of a January deductible reset followed by fourth-quarter stocking. Window-to-window spread never exceeds 0.018 against factor deviations of up to 0.147.
  • Taltz is flat year over year at $856M against $848M; the whole increase in the line is 'other immunology' at $561M against $408M, which is Omvoh and Ebglyss.
  • The basis-quarter release records FDA approval of an every-eight-week Ebglyss maintenance dose, which supports the launch trajectory but is not separately quantified.
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