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LLY · Forward model · Immunology · Bull case

What has to happen in Immunology

Model as of

This page changes Immunology inside the complete LLY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

LLY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $1,170.24 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.80B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $14.72B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Orforglipron turns the incretin market from an injectable-capacity problem into an oral-scale problem, and retatrutide follows it. Foundayo booked $98 million in its first partial quarter with the prescriber base rising to 36,000, the major ex-US rollout is still ahead in early 2027, and the retatrutide clinical data package is complete with a BLA planned for 2027 Q1. Trend growth runs a point a quarter above base, margin gains 1.5 points on oral manufacturing scale, and the exit multiple holds at 8.5x revenue - still a de-rating from today's 12.9x forward EV/revenue.

Immunology

Basis quarter$1.42B
Final quarter$2.80B
Implied CAGR+15%
Final revenue mix6%

Taltz plus the Omvoh and Ebglyss launches. At $1,417M it is 6.2% of revenue and grew 12.9% year over year, the fastest of the non-cardiometabolic lines, and all of that growth sits in the launches rather than in Taltz.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.36B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.54B Estimated
2026 Q1 $1.20B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.42B Reported
TaltzOmvohEbglyssother immunology
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3.0% deseasonalised, just under the 3.1% four-quarter average on that series and below the 3.8% six-quarter average.
Immunology

Latest: $2.80B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $834M
2024Q2 $1.08B
2024Q3 $1.19B
2024Q4 $1.29B
2025Q1 $1.09B
2025Q2 $1.26B
2025Q3 $1.36B
2025Q4 $1.54B
2026Q1 $1.20B
2026Q2 $1.42B
2026Q3E $1.57B
2026Q4E $1.74B
2027Q1E $1.37B
2027Q2E $1.65B
2027Q3E $1.82B
2027Q4E $2.01B
2028Q1E $1.58B
2028Q2E $1.90B
2028Q3E $2.09B
2028Q4E $2.30B
2029Q1E $1.81B
2029Q2E $2.17B
2029Q3E $2.38B
2029Q4E $2.63B
2030Q1E $2.06B
2030Q2E $2.47B
2030Q3E $2.71B
2030Q4E $2.98B
2031Q1E $2.34B
2031Q2E $2.80B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonality [0.853, 0.991, 1.053, 1.123] is a 15% Q1 trough and a 12% Q4 peak, the classic US specialty-pharmacy gross-to-net pattern of a January deductible reset followed by fourth-quarter stocking. Window-to-window spread never exceeds 0.018 against factor deviations of up to 0.147.
  • Taltz is flat year over year at $856M against $848M; the whole increase in the line is 'other immunology' at $561M against $408M, which is Omvoh and Ebglyss.
  • The basis-quarter release records FDA approval of an every-eight-week Ebglyss maintenance dose, which supports the launch trajectory but is not separately quantified.
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