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LLY · Forward model · Cardiometabolic Health · Bear case

What has to happen in Cardiometabolic Health

Model as of

This page changes Cardiometabolic Health inside the complete LLY model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

LLY forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $377.66 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $19.60B 80% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $113.07B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Take the guidance literally. Raised full-year guidance of $85.0-$87.0 billion against $42.773 billion already booked in the first half leaves $42.2-$44.2 billion for the second - flat to slightly up sequentially after a first half that grew 51% year over year. This case assumes that is real: the prior-period rebate and discount adjustments and the $250 million Jardiance milestone that flattered the first half are stripped out as a 10% level step on the cardiometabolic run rate, trend growth runs a point a quarter below base, margin gives up three points to price erosion, and the exit multiple compresses to 4.5x revenue. FY2026 lands at $85.9 billion, inside the guided range and near its bottom.

Cardiometabolic Health

Basis quarter$18.35B
Final quarter$19.60B
Implied CAGR+1%
Final revenue mix80%

Tirzepatide - Mounjaro and Zepbound - plus the legacy diabetes base and the first quarter of oral orforglipron (Foundayo). At $18,353M it was 79.9% of 2026 Q2 revenue and grew 61.8% year over year while the other four areas together grew 8.2%. Lilly publishes no prescriptions, doses or patients by therapeutic area, so a growth driver on the disclosed revenue line is the only shape the disclosure supports.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $13.18B Reported
2025 Q4 $14.49B Estimated
2026 Q1 $15.76B Reported
2026 Q2 $18.35B Reported
MounjaroZepboundTrulicityJardianceFoundayo (orforglipron)other cardiometabolic health
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3.0% deseasonalised. The basis quarter itself ran +3.9% on that series once the disclosed $250M Jardiance milestone is removed.
Cardiometabolic Health

Latest: $19.60B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $5.49B
2024Q2 $7.51B
2024Q3 $7.41B
2024Q4 $9.11B
2025Q1 $9.21B
2025Q2 $11.34B
2025Q3 $13.18B
2025Q4 $14.49B
2026Q1 $15.76B
2026Q2 $18.35B
2026Q3E $16.23B
2026Q4E $16.96B
2027Q1E $15.74B
2027Q2E $17.66B
2027Q3E $17.24B
2027Q4E $17.91B
2028Q1E $16.53B
2028Q2E $18.46B
2028Q3E $17.93B
2028Q4E $18.56B
2029Q1E $17.06B
2029Q2E $19.00B
2029Q3E $18.40B
2029Q4E $18.99B
2030Q1E $17.42B
2030Q2E $19.36B
2030Q3E $18.72B
2030Q4E $19.28B
2031Q1E $17.66B
2031Q2E $19.60B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonality [0.938, 1.038, 1.000, 1.027] is the brief's OLS of log revenue on a time trend plus calendar-quarter dummies over 2024 Q1-2026 Q2, re-centred to mean 1.0. Read it as 'Q1 about 6% below trend, Q4 about 3% above': the CFO named both mechanisms on the call, European Q3 holidays and US type 2 diabetes Q4 seasonality. The Q2 factor is the least reliable, moving 0.053 between the two eight-quarter windows against a 0.038 deviation from 1.0.
  • With seasonality on, growthQoQ is a deseasonalised trend rate and not the sequential print. The model's first two projected quarters for this line are $17,964M and $18,975M, which is +36.3% and +30.9% year over year against the reported $13,177.9M of 2025 Q3 and $14,492.1M of 2025 Q4.
  • Foundayo (orforglipron) booked $98M in 2026 Q2, its first partial quarter, and is reported inside this line in the 10-Q disaggregation. It is not split out as its own vertical because doing so would require inventing nine quarters of history it does not have.
  • Trulicity is in structural decline - FY2023 $7,132M, FY2024 $5,254M, FY2025 $4,276M - and is being cannibalised by Mounjaro from inside the same line.
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