LLY · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Eli Lilly operates as a SINGLE reportable segment. The five verticals here are the ASC 606 disaggregation of revenue by therapeutic area that Lilly publishes in the 10-Q and 10-K revenue note - Cardiometabolic Health, Oncology, Immunology, Neuroscience and Other - and nothing finer is modelled, because nothing finer is disclosed. Revenue splits; profitability does not. Eight of the ten quarters are read directly from three-month columns in five 10-Qs; the two fourth quarters are derived as full year minus nine months and are marked estimated on every line. The five verticals sum to the reported $22,974M of 2026 Q2 revenue exactly, with no plug, and reconcile within $1.1M of rounding in all ten quarters. History stops at 2024 Q1 on purpose: the 2024-vintage filings label the largest line 'Diabetes and obesity' and their area lines do not sum to consolidated revenue, so splicing 2023 on would import a definitional break into exactly the place the seasonal factors are read from. No per-therapeutic-area margin exists in any filing, so all five verticals carry the same consolidated 52.2% EBITDA margin: the guided FY2026 non-GAAP performance-margin midpoint of 49.75%, which is the company's own gross margin less R&D less MS&A, plus 2.4 points of depreciation and amortisation from the H1 cash-flow statement. The 8.0% corporate overhead is the acquired in-process R&D charge treated as an ongoing cost of the pipeline rather than a one-off; it is an assumption, calibrated so that the first projected quarter's 26.2% FCF margin sits just above the 25.2% Lilly actually printed in H1 2026, and it is far below the 12.1% of revenue that 2026 Q2's own $2,776M charge represented. Capex intensity starts at the disclosed H1 2026 rate of 12.3% and glides toward 8.0%; the $4.5 billion Indiana manufacturing commitment is NOT added as a separate capital programme because it is already inside that capex rate and would otherwise be counted twice. Tax is the guided 18-19% non-GAAP rate at 18.5%, applied unlevered - interest is not deducted from cash flow because the $45.96 billion of net debt is deducted from enterprise value instead. The base case does NOT match the FY2026 revenue guide and does not pretend to: it prints $89.8 billion against the guided $85.0-$87.0 billion, and the reason is arithmetic rather than optimism - holding every one of the five lines at zero deseasonalised growth still produces $87.9 billion, because the guided range implies an H2 below the Q2 run rate that the deseasonalised series has never printed. The bear case is where guidance is taken literally, and it lands at $85.9 billion.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.