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JPM · Forward model · Consumer & Community Banking · Bear case

What has to happen in Consumer & Community Banking

Model as of

This page changes Consumer & Community Banking inside the complete JPM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JPM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $163.93 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $20.03B 46% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $81.09B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Markets and IB fees mean-revert from the risk-on quarter, card credit worsens past the 3.2% NCO guide, and NII misses $105.5B as rates and deposits both disappoint. What this case does NOT assume is a 2008-style CET1 hole or a loss of the checking franchise. It says 2026 Q2 was the peak activity quarter.

Consumer & Community Banking

Basis quarter$20.27B
Final quarter$20.03B
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix46%

Deposits, mass-affluent wealth, home lending, card and auto. $20.3B in the basis quarter, +8% year over year, 34% ROE. What paces it is deposit balances and card revolving balances, neither of which is a complete unit series, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $19.47B Reported
2025 Q4 $19.40B Reported
2026 Q1 $19.57B Reported
2026 Q2 $20.27B Reported
Banking & Wealth ManagementHome LendingCard Services & Auto
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3% QoQ. Q1-to-Q2 was +3.6%. Barnum still sees low-to-mid-single-digit consumer deposit growth.
Consumer & Community Banking

Latest: $20.03B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $18.31B
2025Q2 $18.85B
2025Q3 $19.47B
2025Q4 $19.40B
2026Q1 $19.57B
2026Q2 $20.27B
2026Q3E $20.46B
2026Q4E $20.61B
2027Q1E $20.72B
2027Q2E $20.80B
2027Q3E $20.85B
2027Q4E $20.87B
2028Q1E $20.88B
2028Q2E $20.86B
2028Q3E $20.84B
2028Q4E $20.80B
2029Q1E $20.75B
2029Q2E $20.69B
2029Q3E $20.62B
2029Q4E $20.55B
2030Q1E $20.47B
2030Q2E $20.39B
2030Q3E $20.30B
2030Q4E $20.22B
2031Q1E $20.12B
2031Q2E $20.03B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver rather than deposits-as-capacity, and that is the honest answer. Average deposits and card loans are discussed, not published as a complete volume series the engine can charge a yield on.
  • Opening 3% is the trailing sequential, not the 8% year-over-year. Combined with CIB +2%, AWM +4% and Corporate −75% it prints about $54.9B in Q3, a clean-run-rate quarter after the Visa print.
  • Pretax margin 34.6% is PPP $9,164M minus provision $2,156M, over $20,272M. Card NCO 3.34%; Barnum guided about 3.2% for the year. Terminal 32% is a little credit normalisation, not a consumer recession.
  • Banking & WM $11,229M, Home Lending $1,285M, Card & Auto $7,758M are revenue sub-lines. Operating profit is not split between them.
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