JPM · Forward model · Consumer & Community Banking
What has to happen in Consumer & Community Banking
Model as of
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Consumer & Community Banking
Basis quarter$20.27B
Final quarter$30.00B
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix39%
Deposits, mass-affluent wealth, home lending, card and auto. $20.3B in the basis quarter, +8% year over year, 34% ROE. What paces it is deposit balances and card revolving balances, neither of which is a complete unit series, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported line.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$19.47B
Reported
2025 Q4
$19.40B
Reported
2026 Q1
$19.57B
Reported
2026 Q2
$20.27B
Reported
Banking & Wealth ManagementHome LendingCard Services & Auto
Sequential growth
+3.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.5%
3% QoQ. Q1-to-Q2 was +3.6%. Barnum still sees low-to-mid-single-digit consumer deposit growth.
Consumer & Community Banking
Latest: $30.00B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $18.31B |
| 2025Q2 | $18.85B |
| 2025Q3 | $19.47B |
| 2025Q4 | $19.40B |
| 2026Q1 | $19.57B |
| 2026Q2 | $20.27B |
| 2026Q3E | $20.88B |
| 2026Q4E | $21.46B |
| 2027Q1E | $22.01B |
| 2027Q2E | $22.55B |
| 2027Q3E | $23.06B |
| 2027Q4E | $23.56B |
| 2028Q1E | $24.05B |
| 2028Q2E | $24.52B |
| 2028Q3E | $24.99B |
| 2028Q4E | $25.45B |
| 2029Q1E | $25.91B |
| 2029Q2E | $26.36B |
| 2029Q3E | $26.82B |
| 2029Q4E | $27.27B |
| 2030Q1E | $27.72B |
| 2030Q2E | $28.17B |
| 2030Q3E | $28.62B |
| 2030Q4E | $29.08B |
| 2031Q1E | $29.54B |
| 2031Q2E | $30.00B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth driver rather than deposits-as-capacity, and that is the honest answer. Average deposits and card loans are discussed, not published as a complete volume series the engine can charge a yield on.
- Opening 3% is the trailing sequential, not the 8% year-over-year. Combined with CIB +2%, AWM +4% and Corporate −75% it prints about $54.9B in Q3, a clean-run-rate quarter after the Visa print.
- Pretax margin 34.6% is PPP $9,164M minus provision $2,156M, over $20,272M. Card NCO 3.34%; Barnum guided about 3.2% for the year. Terminal 32% is a little credit normalisation, not a consumer recession.
- Banking & WM $11,229M, Home Lending $1,285M, Card & Auto $7,758M are revenue sub-lines. Operating profit is not split between them.