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JPM · Forward model · Consumer & Community Banking · NII Guide case

What has to happen in Consumer & Community Banking

Model as of

This page changes Consumer & Community Banking inside the complete JPM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JPM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $621.17 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $47.66B 42% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $170.56B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Jeremy Barnum on the 14 July 2026 call: NII excluding Markets about $96.5B and total NII approximately $105.5B for 2026, Markets NII about $9B, adjusted expense about $107.5B. H1 reported NII is $50.9B, so H2 has to print about $54.6B. This case pays for that on the same four lines. It does not assume Equities +86% repeats, and it does not treat the 15% retail deposit share as contracted.

Consumer & Community Banking

Basis quarter$20.27B
Final quarter$47.66B
Implied CAGR+19%
Final revenue mix42%

Deposits, mass-affluent wealth, home lending, card and auto. $20.3B in the basis quarter, +8% year over year, 34% ROE. What paces it is deposit balances and card revolving balances, neither of which is a complete unit series, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $19.47B Reported
2025 Q4 $19.40B Reported
2026 Q1 $19.57B Reported
2026 Q2 $20.27B Reported
Banking & Wealth ManagementHome LendingCard Services & Auto
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3% QoQ. Q1-to-Q2 was +3.6%. Barnum still sees low-to-mid-single-digit consumer deposit growth.
Consumer & Community Banking

Latest: $47.66B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $18.31B
2025Q2 $18.85B
2025Q3 $19.47B
2025Q4 $19.40B
2026Q1 $19.57B
2026Q2 $20.27B
2026Q3E $21.30B
2026Q4E $22.34B
2027Q1E $23.41B
2027Q2E $24.50B
2027Q3E $25.62B
2027Q4E $26.77B
2028Q1E $27.96B
2028Q2E $29.18B
2028Q3E $30.44B
2028Q4E $31.74B
2029Q1E $33.09B
2029Q2E $34.48B
2029Q3E $35.92B
2029Q4E $37.42B
2030Q1E $38.97B
2030Q2E $40.58B
2030Q3E $42.25B
2030Q4E $43.98B
2031Q1E $45.78B
2031Q2E $47.66B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver rather than deposits-as-capacity, and that is the honest answer. Average deposits and card loans are discussed, not published as a complete volume series the engine can charge a yield on.
  • Opening 3% is the trailing sequential, not the 8% year-over-year. Combined with CIB +2%, AWM +4% and Corporate −75% it prints about $54.9B in Q3, a clean-run-rate quarter after the Visa print.
  • Pretax margin 34.6% is PPP $9,164M minus provision $2,156M, over $20,272M. Card NCO 3.34%; Barnum guided about 3.2% for the year. Terminal 32% is a little credit normalisation, not a consumer recession.
  • Banking & WM $11,229M, Home Lending $1,285M, Card & Auto $7,758M are revenue sub-lines. Operating profit is not split between them.
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