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JPM · Forward model · Asset & Wealth Management · Bear case

What has to happen in Asset & Wealth Management

Model as of

This page changes Asset & Wealth Management inside the complete JPM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JPM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $163.93 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $7.70B 18% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $35.04B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Markets and IB fees mean-revert from the risk-on quarter, card credit worsens past the 3.2% NCO guide, and NII misses $105.5B as rates and deposits both disappoint. What this case does NOT assume is a 2008-style CET1 hole or a loss of the checking franchise. It says 2026 Q2 was the peak activity quarter.

Asset & Wealth Management

Basis quarter$6.85B
Final quarter$7.70B
Implied CAGR+2%
Final revenue mix18%

Asset management plus the global private bank. $6.9B in the basis quarter, +19% year over year, 48% ROE, 38% pretax. AUM $5.1T with $50B of long-term net inflows. Management fees are 62% of revenue, so AUM is the volume tell and not a subscription driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $6.07B Reported
2025 Q4 $6.52B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.37B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.85B Reported
Asset ManagementGlobal Private Bank
Sequential growth +4.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% 4% QoQ, below the 7.5% Q1-to-Q2 print. AUM +18% YoY supports a mid-single-digit sequential.
Asset & Wealth Management

Latest: $7.70B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $5.73B
2025Q2 $5.76B
2025Q3 $6.07B
2025Q4 $6.52B
2026Q1 $6.37B
2026Q2 $6.85B
2026Q3E $6.98B
2026Q4E $7.10B
2027Q1E $7.19B
2027Q2E $7.28B
2027Q3E $7.35B
2027Q4E $7.41B
2028Q1E $7.46B
2028Q2E $7.51B
2028Q3E $7.54B
2028Q4E $7.57B
2029Q1E $7.60B
2029Q2E $7.62B
2029Q3E $7.64B
2029Q4E $7.66B
2030Q1E $7.67B
2030Q2E $7.68B
2030Q3E $7.69B
2030Q4E $7.69B
2031Q1E $7.70B
2031Q2E $7.70B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver rather than AUM × fee. Asset management fees $4,227M of $6,851M; the rest is private-bank NII and brokerage. Charging a fee on $5.14T would ignore that mix.
  • AUM $5,140B, client assets $7,663B, long-term net inflows $50B. The Q1 dip to $6,374M from Q4 $6,516M is seasonal fees, not a franchise break.
  • Pretax 38.4% matches the disclosed 38% AWM pretax-margin ratio. Terminal 38% holds that rather than expanding it.
  • Asset Management $3,320M and Global Private Bank $3,531M are revenue sub-lines. Pretax is published only for AWM as a whole, plus the two pretax-margin ratios.
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