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JPM · Forward model · Commercial & Investment Bank · Bear case

What has to happen in Commercial & Investment Bank

Model as of

This page changes Commercial & Investment Bank inside the complete JPM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JPM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $163.93 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $15.20B 35% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $114.79B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Markets and IB fees mean-revert from the risk-on quarter, card credit worsens past the 3.2% NCO guide, and NII misses $105.5B as rates and deposits both disappoint. What this case does NOT assume is a 2008-style CET1 hole or a loss of the checking franchise. It says 2026 Q2 was the peak activity quarter.

Commercial & Investment Bank

Basis quarter$24.85B
Final quarter$15.20B
Implied CAGR−9%
Final revenue mix35%

Wholesale banking, payments, markets and securities services. $24.9B in the basis quarter, +27% year over year, 22% ROE. Equity Markets $6.0B was +86%. Barnum said that particular set of things is hard to imagine repeating, so the opening rate is 2%, not the trailing 6%.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $19.88B Reported
2025 Q4 $19.38B Reported
2026 Q1 $23.38B Reported
2026 Q2 $24.85B Reported
Investment BankingPaymentsLendingFixed Income MarketsEquity MarketsSecurities Services
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 2% QoQ. Does not repeat Q2 Equities +86%. Barnum: hard to imagine that set of things repeating.
Commercial & Investment Bank

Latest: $15.20B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $19.67B
2025Q2 $19.54B
2025Q3 $19.88B
2025Q4 $19.38B
2026Q1 $23.38B
2026Q2 $24.85B
2026Q3E $24.34B
2026Q4E $23.81B
2027Q1E $23.28B
2027Q2E $22.74B
2027Q3E $22.21B
2027Q4E $21.68B
2028Q1E $21.16B
2028Q2E $20.64B
2028Q3E $20.13B
2028Q4E $19.63B
2029Q1E $19.14B
2029Q2E $18.66B
2029Q3E $18.19B
2029Q4E $17.74B
2030Q1E $17.29B
2030Q2E $16.85B
2030Q3E $16.42B
2030Q4E $16.00B
2031Q1E $15.59B
2031Q2E $15.20B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • CIB is one reportable segment. Banking & Payments $11,162M versus Markets & Securities Services $13,691M is a revenue split, not two P&Ls. Inventing a Markets vertical would look more rigorous and be less true.
  • Opening 2% is a fade from a record quarter, not the Q3 NII guide. IB fees $3.3B were +30% and the highest since 2021; Barnum said some of that was pull-forward and the pipeline is still robust.
  • Pretax 52.7% is PPP $13,463M minus provision $356M. It includes $263M of the equity-investment gains. Terminal 45% walks off a Markets-heavy mix.
  • Standardized RWA rose about $103B in the quarter. That is CET1, not capex. The 2% capex intensity does not pretend otherwise.
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