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What has to happen in Corporate

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This page changes Corporate inside the complete JPM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JPM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $163.93 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $926M 2% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $7.64B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Markets and IB fees mean-revert from the risk-on quarter, card credit worsens past the 3.2% NCO guide, and NII misses $105.5B as rates and deposits both disappoint. What this case does NOT assume is a 2008-style CET1 hole or a loss of the checking franchise. It says 2026 Q2 was the peak activity quarter.

Corporate

Basis quarter$6.05B
Final quarter$926M
Implied CAGR−31%
Final revenue mix2%

Treasury NII on excess liquidity, securities results and one-time items. $6.0B in the basis quarter versus $1.2B in Q1. The jump is a $4.6B Visa Class C gain plus $763M of equity marks. Opening growth of −75% puts Q3 back near $1.5B, the clean four-quarter average, rather than compounding a one-timer.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.70B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.48B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.22B Reported
2026 Q2 $6.05B Reported
Treasury net interest incomeInvestment securitiesVisa and equity marks
Sequential growth −75.0%/qtr decaying toward 0.0% −75% QoQ. Q2 includes $4.6B Visa plus $763M equity gains. Lands Q3 near the $1.5B clean run-rate.
Corporate

Latest: $926M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $2.30B
2025Q2 $1.54B
2025Q3 $1.70B
2025Q4 $1.48B
2026Q1 $1.22B
2026Q2 $6.05B
2026Q3E $1.48B
2026Q4E $1.34B
2027Q1E $1.31B
2027Q2E $1.28B
2027Q3E $1.25B
2027Q4E $1.23B
2028Q1E $1.20B
2028Q2E $1.18B
2028Q3E $1.16B
2028Q4E $1.13B
2029Q1E $1.11B
2029Q2E $1.09B
2029Q3E $1.07B
2029Q4E $1.04B
2030Q1E $1.02B
2030Q2E $1.00B
2030Q3E $983M
2030Q4E $964M
2031Q1E $945M
2031Q2E $926M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The $6,046M actual is copied as disclosed so managed net revenue still reconciles at $58,022M. The −75% rate is the Visa step-down. Do not strip the gain from history.
  • Release: Corporate net revenue $6.0B, up $4.5B, or down $805M excluding significant items. That down $805M is year over year, on lower NII from lower rates.
  • Margin 53% is Q1 PPP $647M on $1,215M, not Q2's 90% which is the gain. Using 90% would capitalise the Visa print as a treasury spread.
  • Q2 2025 Corporate net income included a $774M income-tax benefit that does not repeat. Prior-year comparisons on this line are not clean.
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