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JPM · Forward model · Consumer & Community Banking · Bull case

What has to happen in Consumer & Community Banking

Model as of

This page changes Consumer & Community Banking inside the complete JPM model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

JPM forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $715.98 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $44.58B 38% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $172.79B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

IB pipeline converts, wholesale deposits keep outrunning the plan, AUM compounds, and CCB keeps adding checking accounts. What this case does NOT reach is Barnum's $105.5B NII as a numbered 2026 print — that is the named case — and it does not treat 15% retail deposit share as a 2026 event.

Consumer & Community Banking

Basis quarter$20.27B
Final quarter$44.58B
Implied CAGR+17%
Final revenue mix38%

Deposits, mass-affluent wealth, home lending, card and auto. $20.3B in the basis quarter, +8% year over year, 34% ROE. What paces it is deposit balances and card revolving balances, neither of which is a complete unit series, so the projection is sequential growth on the reported line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $19.47B Reported
2025 Q4 $19.40B Reported
2026 Q1 $19.57B Reported
2026 Q2 $20.27B Reported
Banking & Wealth ManagementHome LendingCard Services & Auto
Sequential growth +3.0%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3% QoQ. Q1-to-Q2 was +3.6%. Barnum still sees low-to-mid-single-digit consumer deposit growth.
Consumer & Community Banking

Latest: $44.58B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $18.31B
2025Q2 $18.85B
2025Q3 $19.47B
2025Q4 $19.40B
2026Q1 $19.57B
2026Q2 $20.27B
2026Q3E $21.30B
2026Q4E $22.33B
2027Q1E $23.36B
2027Q2E $24.41B
2027Q3E $25.46B
2027Q4E $26.53B
2028Q1E $27.62B
2028Q2E $28.73B
2028Q3E $29.87B
2028Q4E $31.03B
2029Q1E $32.22B
2029Q2E $33.44B
2029Q3E $34.69B
2029Q4E $35.98B
2030Q1E $37.31B
2030Q2E $38.67B
2030Q3E $40.08B
2030Q4E $41.53B
2031Q1E $43.04B
2031Q2E $44.58B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth driver rather than deposits-as-capacity, and that is the honest answer. Average deposits and card loans are discussed, not published as a complete volume series the engine can charge a yield on.
  • Opening 3% is the trailing sequential, not the 8% year-over-year. Combined with CIB +2%, AWM +4% and Corporate −75% it prints about $54.9B in Q3, a clean-run-rate quarter after the Visa print.
  • Pretax margin 34.6% is PPP $9,164M minus provision $2,156M, over $20,272M. Card NCO 3.34%; Barnum guided about 3.2% for the year. Terminal 32% is a little credit normalisation, not a consumer recession.
  • Banking & WM $11,229M, Home Lending $1,285M, Card & Auto $7,758M are revenue sub-lines. Operating profit is not split between them.
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