JPM · Forward model · Bear case
The Bear case, 20 quarters out
Model as of
Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.
JPMorgan reports THREE operating segments plus Corporate — Consumer & Community Banking, Commercial & Investment Bank, Asset & Wealth Management, Corporate — all on a managed (FTE) net-revenue basis. This model copies those FOUR lines so the $4.6B Visa gain sits in Corporate instead of being spread. Every historical point is copied from the 8-K or the Exhibit 99.2 supplement. Markets versus Banking inside CIB is NOT split: only revenue sub-totals are published. AUM is disclosed but AWM is not a subscription, because management fees are 62% of the line. Fiscal quarters are calendar; 2026 Q2 ended 30 June 2026. Segment 'EBITDA' here is pretax income (pre-provision profit minus provision). Corporate's 53% margin is the Q1 run-rate, not the 90% Visa-quarter print. netCash is zero: cash $25B plus deposits with banks $285B minus long-term debt $461B is not surplus capital at a deposit-funded bank. Capex 2% is a premises proxy; most technology spend is already in the expense line, and CET1 against RWA is not capex. Our stored 'revenue' series of $82,460M is gross interest plus noninterest revenue and is not used.
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Latest: $43.85B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $46.01B |
| 2025Q2 | $45.68B |
| 2025Q3 | $47.12B |
| 2025Q4 | $46.77B |
| 2026Q1 | $50.54B |
| 2026Q2 | $58.02B |
| 2026Q3E | $53.26B |
| 2026Q4E | $52.86B |
| 2027Q1E | $52.50B |
| 2027Q2E | $52.09B |
| 2027Q3E | $51.66B |
| 2027Q4E | $51.19B |
| 2028Q1E | $50.70B |
| 2028Q2E | $50.19B |
| 2028Q3E | $49.67B |
| 2028Q4E | $49.14B |
| 2029Q1E | $48.60B |
| 2029Q2E | $48.06B |
| 2029Q3E | $47.52B |
| 2029Q4E | $46.99B |
| 2030Q1E | $46.45B |
| 2030Q2E | $45.92B |
| 2030Q3E | $45.39B |
| 2030Q4E | $44.87B |
| 2031Q1E | $44.36B |
| 2031Q2E | $43.85B |
Where each case comes from
NII Guide case — primary sources
The primary sources this case is built from — filings, calls and posts. Where they are claims by an interested party rather than disclosures, every number in the NII Guide column is what happens if they are taken at face value.
JPMorgan Chase Q2 2026 earnings call, 14 July 2026
- Jul 14, 2026 In terms of the full year 2026 outlook, we now expect NII ex. Markets to be about $96.5 billion and total NII to be approximately $105.5 billion as a function of Markets NII increasing to about $9 billion.
- Jul 14, 2026 And the new adjusted expense outlook is about $107.5 billion, with the increase primarily due to higher volume- and revenue-related expenses, driven by the activity levels and associated revenue outperformance.
- Jul 14, 2026 The Firm reported very strong results in the quarter, generating net income of $16.9 billion and an ROTCE of 23%, excluding gains related to Visa and certain equity investments.
From cash flow to fair value
The published model, discounted at 12.0% a year with an exit multiple of 2.5x on revenue. The horizon and sliders above do not change this walk.
| Present value of free cash flow, 20 quarters | $188.47B |
| Terminal-year revenue | $178.48B |
| Terminal-year EBITDA | $57.83B |
| Exit multiple, on revenue | 2.5x |
| Terminal value | $446.21B |
| Discounted at 12.0% a year, terminal value becomes | $253.19B |
| Share of enterprise value from the terminal | 57% |
| Enterprise value | $441.66B |
| Net cash | $0 |
| Equity value | $441.66B |
| Shares | 2.69B |
| Fair value per share | $163.93 |
| Against the deployed price of $330.83, as of | −50% |
4x terminal-year managed net revenue for a bank whose Equities print has stopped compounding at 86% a year. Today the equity is ~$960B at $356.39 on 2.694B diluted shares, about 4.7x trailing managed net revenue of ~$202B and ~14.5x annualised clean $6.14. Tangible book is $113.35 a share, so the tape is ~3.2x P/TBV. Large-cap banks live on that language; this engine exits on revenue because it has no book-value path. Discount rate is 10%, a large-cap cost of equity, with CET1 already at 14.1% and a 73% LTM payout. Move the exit multiple before anything else: at 2.5x and at 5.5x the answer moves by more than AWM and Corporate combined. netCash is zero on purpose — subtracting $151B of 'net debt' would ignore the deposit franchise those assets fund.
Read the other way round: at $330.83 the market is paying 6.9x terminal-year revenue, holding every other assumption on this page fixed. That is the number to argue about.
The projected path
The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.
| Quarter | Consumer & Community Banking | Commercial & Investment Bank | Asset & Wealth Management | Corporate | Revenue | YoY | EBITDA | Capex | FCF | R40 | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q3E | $20.46B | $24.34B | $6.98B | $1.48B | $53.26B | +13% | $19.69B | $1.07B | $14.71B | +41 | $14.30B |
| 2026 Q4E | $20.61B | $23.81B | $7.10B | $1.34B | $52.86B | +13% | $19.22B | $1.06B | $14.35B | +40 | $13.56B |
| 2027 Q1E | $20.72B | $23.28B | $7.19B | $1.31B | $52.50B | +4% | $18.82B | $1.05B | $14.04B | +31 | $12.90B |
| 2027 Q2E | $20.80B | $22.74B | $7.28B | $1.28B | $52.09B | −10% | $18.45B | $1.04B | $13.75B | +16 | $12.28B |
| 2027 Q3E | $20.85B | $22.21B | $7.35B | $1.25B | $51.66B | −3% | $18.09B | $1.03B | $13.47B | +23 | $11.69B |
| 2027 Q4E | $20.87B | $21.68B | $7.41B | $1.23B | $51.19B | −3% | $17.74B | $1.02B | $13.21B | +23 | $11.14B |
| 2028 Q1E | $20.88B | $21.16B | $7.46B | $1.20B | $50.70B | −3% | $17.42B | $1.01B | $12.96B | +22 | $10.63B |
| 2028 Q2E | $20.86B | $20.64B | $7.51B | $1.18B | $50.19B | −4% | $17.10B | $1.00B | $12.72B | +22 | $10.14B |
| 2028 Q3E | $20.84B | $20.13B | $7.54B | $1.16B | $49.67B | −4% | $16.80B | $993M | $12.49B | +21 | $9.68B |
| 2028 Q4E | $20.80B | $19.63B | $7.57B | $1.13B | $49.14B | −4% | $16.51B | $983M | $12.27B | +21 | $9.24B |
| 2029 Q1E | $20.75B | $19.14B | $7.60B | $1.11B | $48.60B | −4% | $16.24B | $972M | $12.06B | +21 | $8.83B |
| 2029 Q2E | $20.69B | $18.66B | $7.62B | $1.09B | $48.06B | −4% | $15.97B | $961M | $11.86B | +20 | $8.44B |
| 2029 Q3E | $20.62B | $18.19B | $7.64B | $1.07B | $47.52B | −4% | $15.71B | $950M | $11.66B | +20 | $8.07B |
| 2029 Q4E | $20.55B | $17.74B | $7.66B | $1.04B | $46.99B | −4% | $15.47B | $940M | $11.48B | +20 | $7.72B |
| 2030 Q1E | $20.47B | $17.29B | $7.67B | $1.02B | $46.45B | −4% | $15.23B | $929M | $11.30B | +20 | $7.38B |
| 2030 Q2E | $20.39B | $16.85B | $7.68B | $1.00B | $45.92B | −4% | $15.00B | $918M | $11.12B | +20 | $7.07B |
| 2030 Q3E | $20.30B | $16.42B | $7.69B | $983M | $45.39B | −4% | $14.77B | $908M | $10.95B | +20 | $6.77B |
| 2030 Q4E | $20.22B | $16.00B | $7.69B | $964M | $44.87B | −4% | $14.56B | $897M | $10.79B | +20 | $6.48B |
| 2031 Q1E | $20.12B | $15.59B | $7.70B | $945M | $44.36B | −4% | $14.35B | $887M | $10.64B | +19 | $6.21B |
| 2031 Q2E | $20.03B | $15.20B | $7.70B | $926M | $43.85B | −4% | $14.15B | $877M | $10.48B | +19 | $5.95B |
Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.
Model revisions
Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.
| Date | Fair value then | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | $394.94 | Initial model. Four verticals on the disclosed CCB / CIB / AWM / Corporate managed split, basis the June quarter at $58,022M, Corporate opening rate a Visa step-down, NII guide the named case. |