HOOD · Forward model · Robinhood Chain & tokenization · Bull case
What has to happen in Robinhood Chain & tokenization
Model as of
This page changes Robinhood Chain & tokenization inside the complete HOOD model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Robinhood Chain & tokenization
Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$570M
Final revenue mix10%
Tokenized assets on Robinhood's own chain: the infrastructure Tenev named in the Q2 release alongside Robinhood Ventures and Trump Accounts. It earns nothing today and Robinhood reports nothing for it, so it starts from zero here. Sized as fees on assets held on-chain rather than as trades, because the point of tokenizing an asset is that it stops moving through a broker.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$0
Reported
2025 Q4
$0
Reported
2026 Q1
$0
Reported
2026 Q2
$0
Reported
Tokenized equity and fund assetsOn-chain settlement and custody feesThird-party issuance on Robinhood Chain
Capacity energised
5 $B tokenized
at the basis quarter
$5B of tokenized assets when the line opens in 2027 Q3 - against $369B of total platform assets today.
Capacity added
2 $B tokenized/qtr
changing +8.0% per quarter
$2.5B a quarter to start, compounding. This is the input the whole line lives on.
Utilisation
100%
gliding toward 100%
100%: every tokenized dollar earns a fee. There is no idle capacity in a ledger.
Revenue per $B tokenized
$4.00M/qtr
drifting −1.0% per quarter
$4M per $1B a quarter, about 16 basis points a year - custody pricing, not trading pricing.
Robinhood Chain & tokenization
Latest: $570M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q3E | $35M |
| 2027Q4E | $49M |
| 2028Q1E | $65M |
| 2028Q2E | $83M |
| 2028Q3E | $102M |
| 2028Q4E | $125M |
| 2029Q1E | $150M |
| 2029Q2E | $178M |
| 2029Q3E | $210M |
| 2029Q4E | $246M |
| 2030Q1E | $286M |
| 2030Q2E | $330M |
| 2030Q3E | $381M |
| 2030Q4E | $437M |
| 2031Q1E | $499M |
| 2031Q2E | $570M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- No reported history and no carved-out base. Robinhood has never disclosed a dollar of chain or tokenization revenue, so this line is held at zero across every reported quarter and opens in 2027 Q3 rather than being apportioned out of crypto.
- The unit is a billion dollars of tokenized assets on the platform, earning about $4M a quarter each - roughly 16 basis points a year, which is custody-and-settlement pricing rather than trading pricing.
- Four quarters of nothing before the first dollar. European tokenized stock trading is live but tiny, and US tokenized equities need a regulatory answer that does not exist yet - which is the real reason this line starts late rather than small.
- It is deliberately small even in the bull case. A reader who thinks tokenization is the whole thesis should move the balance growth slider and watch how little the fair value moves - that is the finding, not a limitation of the model.
- During its four zero-revenue quarters this line books no capital spending, because capex is charged as a share of its own revenue. For a software line the amount charged nowhere is small; for a fab it would not be.