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GOOGL · Forward model · Other Bets · Bull case

What has to happen in Other Bets

Model as of

This page changes Other Bets inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $519.16 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $765M 0% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$31.19B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Search keeps compounding on AI-driven queries, Cloud mix stays at the 35%+ operating margin, and the capex-to-revenue ratio starts falling before 2028. What this case does NOT reach is the $514B backlog converting on a numbered path — that is the named case — and it does not assume Waymo is a material P&L.

Other Bets

Basis quarter$382M
Final quarter$765M
Implied CAGR+15%
Final revenue mix0%

Waymo autonomous rides and other bets. $382M in the basis quarter, +2%, operating loss $1,799M. Waymo surpassed 500,000 fully autonomous rides a week in Q1 2026. That is not a disclosed dollar path, so sequential growth on the tiny filed total.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $344M Reported
2025 Q4 $370M Reported
2026 Q1 $411M Reported
2026 Q2 $382M Reported
Waymo autonomous transportationOther Other-Bets internet and healthcare remnants
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% YoY +2%. Do not turn 500k weekly rides into a dollar ramp Alphabet did not file.
Other Bets

Latest: $765M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $450M
2025Q2 $373M
2025Q3 $344M
2025Q4 $370M
2026Q1 $411M
2026Q2 $382M
2026Q3E $395M
2026Q4E $409M
2027Q1E $424M
2027Q2E $439M
2027Q3E $454M
2027Q4E $470M
2028Q1E $487M
2028Q2E $504M
2028Q3E $522M
2028Q4E $540M
2029Q1E $559M
2029Q2E $579M
2029Q3E $600M
2029Q4E $621M
2030Q1E $643M
2030Q2E $665M
2030Q3E $689M
2030Q4E $713M
2031Q1E $738M
2031Q2E $765M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not add a delayed Waymo vertical. Rides per week are disclosed; dollars per ride are not. Other Bets remains $382M.
  • Q4 2025 operating loss $3,617M included a $2.1B Waymo employee compensation charge. Q2 $1,799M is the cleaner run-rate hole.
  • This line cannot move group fair value much. It is carried because Alphabet reports it and because folding it into Cloud would flatter Cloud.
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