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GOOGL · Forward model · Google Search & other · Bear case

What has to happen in Google Search & other

Model as of

This page changes Google Search & other inside the complete GOOGL model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

GOOGL forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $113.15 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $59.71B 47% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $264.59B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Search AI substitutes for queries, Cloud utilisation misses the $514B backlog, and capex stays elevated into 2028. What this case does NOT assume is a Chrome divestiture or a collapse of YouTube. It says 2026 was the peak growth year and the build does not earn its cost of capital.

Google Search & other

Basis quarter$63.27B
Final quarter$59.71B
Implied CAGR−1%
Final revenue mix47%

Advertising on Google Search and other Google properties. $63,271M in the basis quarter, 53% of the company, +17% year over year. Pichai says AI features are driving query growth. There is no published quarterly query or RPM series, so the driver is sequential growth on the disclosed line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $56.57B Reported
2025 Q4 $63.07B Reported
2026 Q1 $60.40B Reported
2026 Q2 $63.27B Reported
Google Search adsOther Google properties advertising
Sequential growth +3.5%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% Q2/Q1 was +4.8%. 3.5% is a slower step, about 15% a year against +17% YoY, not a Q4 spike.
Google Search & other

Latest: $59.71B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $50.70B
2025Q2 $54.19B
2025Q3 $56.57B
2025Q4 $63.07B
2026Q1 $60.40B
2026Q2 $63.27B
2026Q3E $63.85B
2026Q4E $64.28B
2027Q1E $64.59B
2027Q2E $64.77B
2027Q3E $64.86B
2027Q4E $64.85B
2028Q1E $64.77B
2028Q2E $64.61B
2028Q3E $64.39B
2028Q4E $64.12B
2029Q1E $63.81B
2029Q2E $63.45B
2029Q3E $63.06B
2029Q4E $62.64B
2030Q1E $62.19B
2030Q2E $61.72B
2030Q3E $61.24B
2030Q4E $60.74B
2031Q1E $60.23B
2031Q2E $59.71B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Do not treat Search as dying. +17% on a $63B quarter is the print. The AI-substitution case is the bear, not the base.
  • Google Services operating income $39,544M is not split among Search, YouTube, Network and subscriptions. The 44% EBITDA is assumed, not disclosed, on this line.
  • Q4 is seasonally the strongest Search quarter ($63,073M in 2025 Q4 vs $56,567M in Q3). The projection is smooth; read the annual totals.
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