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COIN · Forward model · Consumer transaction · Bear case

What has to happen in Consumer transaction

Model as of

This page changes Consumer transaction inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

COIN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $37.05 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $267M 32% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $3.50B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The tape keeps contracting and the rate cycle turns against the balance lines at the same time. 2026 Q2 already showed both at once: spot volume fell with the market and stablecoin revenue fell 5% on an all-time-high balance. What this case does not assume is a loss of market share, which rose in the quarter, or a break in the Circle partnership.

Consumer transaction

Basis quarter$452M
Final quarter$267M
Implied CAGR−10%
Final revenue mix32%

Retail order flow: consumer crypto spot volume times a take rate. The take rate has risen five straight quarters to 1.75% because prediction-market and consumer perpetuals fees land in this line while their contract volume is not counted inside crypto spot volume.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $844M Reported
2025 Q4 $734M Estimated
2026 Q1 $567M Reported
2026 Q2 $452M Reported
Simple trade and Advanced Trade consumer feesPrediction market feesConsumer perpetual futures fees
Units 25800/qtr growing −4.0% per quarter $25.8B of consumer spot volume in 2026 Q2, in $M. Disclosed in the deck Select Operating Metrics.
Price per unit $17507 drifting −1.0% per quarter Revenue per $M of volume: the derived 1.7506% take rate, a five-quarter high on prediction-market mix.
Consumer transaction

Latest: $267M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $1.10B
2025Q2 $650M
2025Q3 $844M
2025Q4 $734M
2026Q1 $567M
2026Q2 $452M
2026Q3E $419M
2026Q4E $392M
2027Q1E $371M
2027Q2E $354M
2027Q3E $340M
2027Q4E $328M
2028Q1E $318M
2028Q2E $310M
2028Q3E $303M
2028Q4E $297M
2029Q1E $292M
2029Q2E $288M
2029Q3E $284M
2029Q4E $281M
2030Q1E $278M
2030Q2E $275M
2030Q3E $273M
2030Q4E $271M
2031Q1E $269M
2031Q2E $267M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • One unit is $1M of consumer crypto spot volume: 25,800 units in 2026 Q2 at $17,507 of revenue each is the disclosed $25.8B of volume at the derived 1.7506% take rate.
  • The take rate is a blend, not a fee schedule. Prediction markets crossed $100M of annualised net revenue in 2026 Q2 and more than doubled sequentially, which is why the rate rises while spot volume falls.
  • The deck reports about $130M of transaction revenue in the first 26 days of 2026 Q3, which a naive extrapolation would turn into roughly $460M for the quarter against the $571M of total transaction revenue this model projects. The deck says in terms not to extrapolate it, and this model does not.
  • Volume history is a cycle, not a season: with six quarters of filed line detail a centred four-quarter moving average yields ratios for 2025 Q3 (1.103) and 2025 Q4 (1.089) only, and none at all for Q1 or Q2, so no seasonal factor can be derived and none is applied.
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