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COIN · Forward model · Blockchain rewards · Bear case

What has to happen in Blockchain rewards

Model as of

This page changes Blockchain rewards inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

COIN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $37.05 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $39M 5% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $524M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The tape keeps contracting and the rate cycle turns against the balance lines at the same time. 2026 Q2 already showed both at once: spot volume fell with the market and stablecoin revenue fell 5% on an all-time-high balance. What this case does not assume is a loss of market share, which rose in the quarter, or a break in the Circle partnership.

Blockchain rewards

Basis quarter$83M
Final quarter$39M
Implied CAGR−14%
Final revenue mix5%

Staking commissions on customer assets. Revenue falls out of staked units times token price times protocol reward rate times the commission, and Coinbase discloses none of those four, so sequential growth on the filed total is the only defensible driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $185M Reported
2025 Q4 $152M Estimated
2026 Q1 $101M Reported
2026 Q2 $83M Reported
Ethereum and Solana staking commissionsOther proof-of-stake rewards
Sequential growth −14.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% Down 17% in Q2 on price and reward-rate effects; assets on platform fell 16% and carry into Q3.
Blockchain rewards

Latest: $39M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $197M
2025Q2 $145M
2025Q3 $185M
2025Q4 $152M
2026Q1 $101M
2026Q2 $83M
2026Q3E $70M
2026Q4E $61M
2027Q1E $56M
2027Q2E $52M
2027Q3E $49M
2027Q4E $47M
2028Q1E $45M
2028Q2E $44M
2028Q3E $43M
2028Q4E $42M
2029Q1E $42M
2029Q2E $41M
2029Q3E $41M
2029Q4E $40M
2030Q1E $40M
2030Q2E $40M
2030Q3E $39M
2030Q4E $39M
2031Q1E $39M
2031Q2E $39M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Assets on platform fell 16% to $246B in 2026 Q2, mostly on spot-bitcoin-ETF outflows where Coinbase is primary custodian, and blockchain rewards fell 17% even as native units staked rose. Revenue at 0.0339% of assets on platform is a ratio, not a disclosed rate.
  • The research brief proposed a 0.15 decay on this line. That would hold it in decline for thirteen straight quarters, which contradicts the recovering volume path the same brief assumes for trading, so the decay is raised to 0.25: the line troughs at $54M in 2027 and recovers to $64M, still 23% below the 2026 Q2 print.
  • Staked balances, native units and commission rates are all undisclosed, so no unit driver can be built here without inventing one.
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