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COIN · Forward model · Other subscription and services · Bear case

What has to happen in Other subscription and services

Model as of

This page changes Other subscription and services inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

COIN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $37.05 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $107M 13% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.23B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The tape keeps contracting and the rate cycle turns against the balance lines at the same time. 2026 Q2 already showed both at once: spot volume fell with the market and stablecoin revenue fell 5% on an all-time-high balance. What this case does not assume is a loss of market share, which rose in the quarter, or a break in the Circle partnership.

Other subscription and services

Basis quarter$114M
Final quarter$107M
Implied CAGR−1%
Final revenue mix13%

Coinbase One membership fees, custody fees, Coinbase One Card interchange and other services. Coinbase says paid Coinbase One subscribers hit an all-time high but publishes no count, no ARPU and no custody fee schedule, so a genuine subscription driver cannot be built and sequential growth is the honest choice.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $143M Reported
2025 Q4 $152M Estimated
2026 Q1 $109M Reported
2026 Q2 $114M Reported
Coinbase One subscription feesCustody fees, including spot bitcoin ETF custodyCoinbase One Card and other services
Sequential growth +2.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.5% Rose 4% in Q2 against a falling tape; Q3 loses the performance earn-outs the deck flags.
Other subscription and services

Latest: $107M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $141M
2025Q2 $119M
2025Q3 $143M
2025Q4 $152M
2026Q1 $109M
2026Q2 $114M
2026Q3E $113M
2026Q4E $112M
2027Q1E $112M
2027Q2E $111M
2027Q3E $111M
2027Q4E $111M
2028Q1E $110M
2028Q2E $110M
2028Q3E $110M
2028Q4E $109M
2029Q1E $109M
2029Q2E $109M
2029Q3E $109M
2029Q4E $108M
2030Q1E $108M
2030Q2E $108M
2030Q3E $108M
2030Q4E $108M
2031Q1E $108M
2031Q2E $107M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This was the only line in the business that grew sequentially in 2026 Q2, and it is the line on which the diversification claim ultimately rests. It is also the least disclosed one.
  • A subscriber count would promote this vertical to a subscription driver. The widely quoted 1 million-plus Coinbase One figure appears in no filing and no deck, so it is deliberately absent from every input here.
  • Custody fees move with ETF assets, which fell in 2026 Q2 on ETF outflows, and the Q3 outlook flags the roll-off of Q2 performance earn-outs as a headwind.
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