COIN · Forward model · Stablecoin revenue · Bear case
What has to happen in Stablecoin revenue
Model as of
This page changes Stablecoin revenue inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Stablecoin revenue
Basis quarter$292M
Final quarter$249M
Implied CAGR−3%
Final revenue mix30%
Interest earned on USDC reserves. The base is a balance rather than a subscriber count and the price is a yield: Coinbase keeps essentially all reserve income on USDC held inside its own products and a contractual share of the income on USDC held elsewhere. Both balances and both revenue halves are disclosed, which makes this the best-evidenced driver in the model.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$325M
Estimated
2025 Q4
$331M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$305M
Reported
2026 Q2
$292M
Reported
Reserve income on customer USDC held in Coinbase productsContractual share of off-platform USDC reserve income under the Circle agreement
Subscribers
17.0M
22.1% of a 77.0M addressable base
$17B of customer USDC inside Coinbase products, counted in thousands of dollars of balance.
Addressable subscribers
77.0M
the S-curve ceiling
$77B of average USDC market capitalisation in 2026 Q2, the whole pool the balance can come from.
Net adds
0/qtr
ramping toward 0/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
Net-add ceiling
0/qtr
what supply can deliver at full rate
ARPU
$2.86/mo
drifting −1.5% per quarter, floor $2.42
Monthly reserve income per $1,000 of balance: the derived 3.44% annualised on-platform yield.
Non-subscriber revenue
$146M/qtr
growing +1.5% per quarter
$146M a quarter earned on the $57B of USDC held off-platform under the Circle agreement.
Stablecoin revenue
Latest: $249M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $274M |
| 2025Q2 | $309M |
| 2025Q3 | $325M |
| 2025Q4 | $331M |
| 2026Q1 | $305M |
| 2026Q2 | $292M |
| 2026Q3E | $289M |
| 2026Q4E | $286M |
| 2027Q1E | $283M |
| 2027Q2E | $280M |
| 2027Q3E | $277M |
| 2027Q4E | $274M |
| 2028Q1E | $271M |
| 2028Q2E | $268M |
| 2028Q3E | $265M |
| 2028Q4E | $262M |
| 2029Q1E | $259M |
| 2029Q2E | $257M |
| 2029Q3E | $256M |
| 2029Q4E | $255M |
| 2030Q1E | $254M |
| 2030Q2E | $253M |
| 2030Q3E | $252M |
| 2030Q4E | $251M |
| 2031Q1E | $250M |
| 2031Q2E | $249M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A subscriber here is $1,000 of customer USDC held inside Coinbase products and ARPU is the monthly reserve income it earns: 17,000,000 of them at $2.86 a month is the derived $146M a quarter on a $17B balance, a 3.44% annualised yield.
- The addressable base is average USDC market capitalisation of $77B, so the attach rate is the 22.1% of all USDC that sits inside Coinbase products. Non-subscriber revenue is the other half of the line: $146M earned on the $57B held off-platform, a derived 1.03% annualised yield that mixes the reserve rate with an undisclosed Circle split.
- The deck build is exact: on-platform revenue $174M less $28M earned on corporate balances is $146M, plus $146M off-platform, against filed stablecoin revenue of $292,147K.
- The 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 figures are restated onto the current basis by removing the $30M and $33M of corporate-balance revenue that the Q1 2026 10-Q moved into corporate interest and other income; that amount is carried in the corporate interest vertical, so every quarter still sums to filed total revenue.
- This line is a duration bet on short rates as much as a crypto bet: balances hit an all-time high in 2026 Q2 and revenue still fell 5%, because the rate fell faster than the balance grew.