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COIN · Forward model · Interest and finance fee income · Bear case

What has to happen in Interest and finance fee income

Model as of

This page changes Interest and finance fee income inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

COIN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $37.05 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $44M 5% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $577M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The tape keeps contracting and the rate cycle turns against the balance lines at the same time. 2026 Q2 already showed both at once: spot volume fell with the market and stablecoin revenue fell 5% on an all-time-high balance. What this case does not assume is a loss of market share, which rose in the quarter, or a break in the Circle partnership.

Interest and finance fee income

Basis quarter$66M
Final quarter$44M
Implied CAGR−8%
Final revenue mix5%

Interest and financing fees on customer credit: the Borrow and Lend products, margin and Prime financing. Coinbase discloses one balance metric that plainly covers only part of the earning base, so this line is modelled as sequential growth with that balance as context.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $65M Reported
2025 Q4 $60M Estimated
2026 Q1 $68M Reported
2026 Q2 $66M Reported
Borrow and Lend product interestMargin and Prime financing feesCustomer fiat interest
Sequential growth −2.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% Balances at an all-time high but rates falling; Q2 fell 2% on exactly those two forces.
Interest and finance fee income

Latest: $44M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $63M
2025Q2 $59M
2025Q3 $65M
2025Q4 $60M
2026Q1 $68M
2026Q2 $66M
2026Q3E $63M
2026Q4E $61M
2027Q1E $59M
2027Q2E $57M
2027Q3E $55M
2027Q4E $54M
2028Q1E $52M
2028Q2E $51M
2028Q3E $50M
2028Q4E $49M
2029Q1E $48M
2029Q2E $48M
2029Q3E $47M
2029Q4E $46M
2030Q1E $46M
2030Q2E $45M
2030Q3E $45M
2030Q4E $44M
2031Q1E $44M
2031Q2E $44M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Average borrow/lend balances reached an all-time high $1,491M in 2026 Q2, up from $199M a year earlier, and this line still fell 2%. The implied 17.7% annualised yield on that balance is the evidence that borrow/lend is only part of the base.
  • Loan receivables of $1,572,354K at 30 June 2026 against $1,354,692K at 31 December 2025 are the closest filed proxy for the earning base, and credit losses on the Borrow book are not separately disclosed.
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