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COIN · Forward model · Consumer transaction · Everything Exchange case

What has to happen in Consumer transaction

Model as of

This page changes Consumer transaction inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

COIN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $196.72 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $801M 32% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $7.51B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Coinbase stops being a crypto exchange and becomes a multi-asset one. Equity and pre-IPO perpetuals are live for non-US traders, US access to global perpetuals is routed through a CFTC-regulated pathway, and Deribit unifies US and international liquidity. This is the only case in which the take rate rises on a growing volume base rather than a shrinking one, and at $196.72 it is also the only case that clears the $181.78 tape: it is what you have to believe to own the stock here. It does not assume any of those products is monetised today, because none of them is.

Consumer transaction

Basis quarter$452M
Final quarter$801M
Implied CAGR+12%
Final revenue mix32%

Retail order flow: consumer crypto spot volume times a take rate. The take rate has risen five straight quarters to 1.75% because prediction-market and consumer perpetuals fees land in this line while their contract volume is not counted inside crypto spot volume.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $844M Reported
2025 Q4 $734M Estimated
2026 Q1 $567M Reported
2026 Q2 $452M Reported
Simple trade and Advanced Trade consumer feesPrediction market feesConsumer perpetual futures fees
Units 25800/qtr growing −4.0% per quarter $25.8B of consumer spot volume in 2026 Q2, in $M. Disclosed in the deck Select Operating Metrics.
Price per unit $17507 drifting −1.0% per quarter Revenue per $M of volume: the derived 1.7506% take rate, a five-quarter high on prediction-market mix.
Consumer transaction

Latest: $801M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $1.10B
2025Q2 $650M
2025Q3 $844M
2025Q4 $734M
2026Q1 $567M
2026Q2 $452M
2026Q3E $442M
2026Q4E $438M
2027Q1E $437M
2027Q2E $441M
2027Q3E $447M
2027Q4E $456M
2028Q1E $467M
2028Q2E $481M
2028Q3E $497M
2028Q4E $515M
2029Q1E $534M
2029Q2E $556M
2029Q3E $580M
2029Q4E $605M
2030Q1E $633M
2030Q2E $662M
2030Q3E $694M
2030Q4E $727M
2031Q1E $763M
2031Q2E $801M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • One unit is $1M of consumer crypto spot volume: 25,800 units in 2026 Q2 at $17,507 of revenue each is the disclosed $25.8B of volume at the derived 1.7506% take rate.
  • The take rate is a blend, not a fee schedule. Prediction markets crossed $100M of annualised net revenue in 2026 Q2 and more than doubled sequentially, which is why the rate rises while spot volume falls.
  • The deck reports about $130M of transaction revenue in the first 26 days of 2026 Q3, which a naive extrapolation would turn into roughly $460M for the quarter against the $571M of total transaction revenue this model projects. The deck says in terms not to extrapolate it, and this model does not.
  • Volume history is a cycle, not a season: with six quarters of filed line detail a centred four-quarter moving average yields ratios for 2025 Q3 (1.103) and 2025 Q4 (1.089) only, and none at all for Q1 or Q2, so no seasonal factor can be derived and none is applied.
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