COIN · Forward model · Consumer transaction
What has to happen in Consumer transaction
Model as of
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Consumer transaction
Basis quarter$452M
Final quarter$443M
Implied CAGR0%
Final revenue mix32%
Retail order flow: consumer crypto spot volume times a take rate. The take rate has risen five straight quarters to 1.75% because prediction-market and consumer perpetuals fees land in this line while their contract volume is not counted inside crypto spot volume.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$844M
Reported
2025 Q4
$734M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$567M
Reported
2026 Q2
$452M
Reported
Simple trade and Advanced Trade consumer feesPrediction market feesConsumer perpetual futures fees
Units
25800/qtr
growing −4.0% per quarter
$25.8B of consumer spot volume in 2026 Q2, in $M. Disclosed in the deck Select Operating Metrics.
Price per unit
$17507
drifting −1.0% per quarter
Revenue per $M of volume: the derived 1.7506% take rate, a five-quarter high on prediction-market mix.
Consumer transaction
Latest: $443M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $1.10B |
| 2025Q2 | $650M |
| 2025Q3 | $844M |
| 2025Q4 | $734M |
| 2026Q1 | $567M |
| 2026Q2 | $452M |
| 2026Q3E | $429M |
| 2026Q4E | $413M |
| 2027Q1E | $400M |
| 2027Q2E | $392M |
| 2027Q3E | $386M |
| 2027Q4E | $382M |
| 2028Q1E | $380M |
| 2028Q2E | $380M |
| 2028Q3E | $381M |
| 2028Q4E | $383M |
| 2029Q1E | $386M |
| 2029Q2E | $390M |
| 2029Q3E | $395M |
| 2029Q4E | $400M |
| 2030Q1E | $406M |
| 2030Q2E | $413M |
| 2030Q3E | $420M |
| 2030Q4E | $427M |
| 2031Q1E | $435M |
| 2031Q2E | $443M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- One unit is $1M of consumer crypto spot volume: 25,800 units in 2026 Q2 at $17,507 of revenue each is the disclosed $25.8B of volume at the derived 1.7506% take rate.
- The take rate is a blend, not a fee schedule. Prediction markets crossed $100M of annualised net revenue in 2026 Q2 and more than doubled sequentially, which is why the rate rises while spot volume falls.
- The deck reports about $130M of transaction revenue in the first 26 days of 2026 Q3, which a naive extrapolation would turn into roughly $460M for the quarter against the $571M of total transaction revenue this model projects. The deck says in terms not to extrapolate it, and this model does not.
- Volume history is a cycle, not a season: with six quarters of filed line detail a centred four-quarter moving average yields ratios for 2025 Q3 (1.103) and 2025 Q4 (1.089) only, and none at all for Q1 or Q2, so no seasonal factor can be derived and none is applied.