COIN · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Every one of the eight verticals is a line Coinbase files in its quarterly revenue disaggregation table, so nothing here is apportioned: the eight sum to filed total revenue to the dollar in all six quarters ($2,034,295K, $1,497,208K, $1,868,693K, $1,781,129K, $1,412,982K and $1,220,068K). Two quarters carry derived figures. Revenue on Coinbase own USDC balances was reclassified out of stablecoin revenue and into corporate interest and other income beginning with the Q1 2026 10-Q, so 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 stablecoin revenue is restated down by the deck rounded $30M and $33M and corporate interest absorbs the same amount; the FY2025 10-K is on the old basis. Every quarter of corporate interest is derived as total revenue less transaction revenue less subscription and services revenue, and 2025 Q4 for the other seven lines is the filed full year less the filed nine months. What is assumed is the cost side. Coinbase has one reportable segment and attributes no cost below the consolidated transaction-expense ratio, so all seven revenue-generating verticals carry the same 83.6% contribution margin derived from transaction expense of $189,790K on net revenue of $1,154,301K, and corporate interest carries 100% because transaction expense is charged against net revenue, which excludes it. Cash overhead sits at 65.3% of revenue, the derived 2026 Q2 ratio: adjusted expenses of $1,034.8M less $238.3M of stock compensation is $796.5M. At the basis quarter that produces $234.1M of model EBITDA against $207.8M of reported adjusted EBITDA, the $22M gap being crypto operating losses of $31.7M net of $10.0M of other operating income. The research brief assumed overhead falls to 46% of revenue in the long run, which needs about $7.4B of revenue against $3.4B of cost; this model base path reaches $5.4B, so holding 65.3% keeps overhead at $3.0-3.4B a year, right on the guided FY2026 range, and the operating leverage lives in the scenario margin deltas instead. Buybacks and the convertible repayment are deliberately not modelled as capital programmes: they are financing, not capex, and subtracting them would double-count cash the discounted flows already value. No vertical carries seasonality: six quarters of line detail yield a centred four-quarter moving average for 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 only, which leaves Q1 and Q2 with no observation at all and each of the other two with a single window, so no factor can be estimated and the two ratios that exist measure the 2025 cycle upswing and the Deribit consolidation rather than a season.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.