COIN · Forward model · Blockchain rewards
What has to happen in Blockchain rewards
Model as of
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Blockchain rewards
Basis quarter$83M
Final quarter$64M
Implied CAGR−5%
Final revenue mix5%
Staking commissions on customer assets. Revenue falls out of staked units times token price times protocol reward rate times the commission, and Coinbase discloses none of those four, so sequential growth on the filed total is the only defensible driver.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$185M
Reported
2025 Q4
$152M
Estimated
2026 Q1
$101M
Reported
2026 Q2
$83M
Reported
Ethereum and Solana staking commissionsOther proof-of-stake rewards
Sequential growth
−14.0%/qtr
decaying toward +2.0%
Down 17% in Q2 on price and reward-rate effects; assets on platform fell 16% and carry into Q3.
Blockchain rewards
Latest: $64M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $197M |
| 2025Q2 | $145M |
| 2025Q3 | $185M |
| 2025Q4 | $152M |
| 2026Q1 | $101M |
| 2026Q2 | $83M |
| 2026Q3E | $72M |
| 2026Q4E | $65M |
| 2027Q1E | $60M |
| 2027Q2E | $57M |
| 2027Q3E | $55M |
| 2027Q4E | $54M |
| 2028Q1E | $54M |
| 2028Q2E | $54M |
| 2028Q3E | $54M |
| 2028Q4E | $55M |
| 2029Q1E | $55M |
| 2029Q2E | $56M |
| 2029Q3E | $57M |
| 2029Q4E | $58M |
| 2030Q1E | $59M |
| 2030Q2E | $60M |
| 2030Q3E | $61M |
| 2030Q4E | $62M |
| 2031Q1E | $63M |
| 2031Q2E | $64M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Assets on platform fell 16% to $246B in 2026 Q2, mostly on spot-bitcoin-ETF outflows where Coinbase is primary custodian, and blockchain rewards fell 17% even as native units staked rose. Revenue at 0.0339% of assets on platform is a ratio, not a disclosed rate.
- The research brief proposed a 0.15 decay on this line. That would hold it in decline for thirteen straight quarters, which contradicts the recovering volume path the same brief assumes for trading, so the decay is raised to 0.25: the line troughs at $54M in 2027 and recovers to $64M, still 23% below the 2026 Q2 print.
- Staked balances, native units and commission rates are all undisclosed, so no unit driver can be built here without inventing one.