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COIN · Forward model · Blockchain rewards · Everything Exchange case

What has to happen in Blockchain rewards

Model as of

This page changes Blockchain rewards inside the complete COIN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

COIN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $196.72 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $116M 5% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.11B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Coinbase stops being a crypto exchange and becomes a multi-asset one. Equity and pre-IPO perpetuals are live for non-US traders, US access to global perpetuals is routed through a CFTC-regulated pathway, and Deribit unifies US and international liquidity. This is the only case in which the take rate rises on a growing volume base rather than a shrinking one, and at $196.72 it is also the only case that clears the $181.78 tape: it is what you have to believe to own the stock here. It does not assume any of those products is monetised today, because none of them is.

Blockchain rewards

Basis quarter$83M
Final quarter$116M
Implied CAGR+7%
Final revenue mix5%

Staking commissions on customer assets. Revenue falls out of staked units times token price times protocol reward rate times the commission, and Coinbase discloses none of those four, so sequential growth on the filed total is the only defensible driver.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $185M Reported
2025 Q4 $152M Estimated
2026 Q1 $101M Reported
2026 Q2 $83M Reported
Ethereum and Solana staking commissionsOther proof-of-stake rewards
Sequential growth −14.0%/qtr decaying toward +2.0% Down 17% in Q2 on price and reward-rate effects; assets on platform fell 16% and carry into Q3.
Blockchain rewards

Latest: $116M (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $197M
2025Q2 $145M
2025Q3 $185M
2025Q4 $152M
2026Q1 $101M
2026Q2 $83M
2026Q3E $74M
2026Q4E $68M
2027Q1E $66M
2027Q2E $64M
2027Q3E $64M
2027Q4E $65M
2028Q1E $66M
2028Q2E $68M
2028Q3E $71M
2028Q4E $73M
2029Q1E $76M
2029Q2E $80M
2029Q3E $83M
2029Q4E $87M
2030Q1E $91M
2030Q2E $96M
2030Q3E $100M
2030Q4E $105M
2031Q1E $111M
2031Q2E $116M

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Assets on platform fell 16% to $246B in 2026 Q2, mostly on spot-bitcoin-ETF outflows where Coinbase is primary custodian, and blockchain rewards fell 17% even as native units staked rose. Revenue at 0.0339% of assets on platform is a ratio, not a disclosed rate.
  • The research brief proposed a 0.15 decay on this line. That would hold it in decline for thirteen straight quarters, which contradicts the recovering volume path the same brief assumes for trading, so the decay is raised to 0.25: the line troughs at $54M in 2027 and recovers to $64M, still 23% below the 2026 Q2 print.
  • Staked balances, native units and commission rates are all undisclosed, so no unit driver can be built here without inventing one.
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