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AMZN · Forward model · International · Bear case

What has to happen in International

Model as of

This page changes International inside the complete AMZN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMZN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $151.41 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $49.47B 20% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$17.47B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

AWS growth mean-reverts as the AI training build digests: the capacity gets energised, the demand behind it turns out to have been contracted at a discount, and revenue per megawatt falls faster than mix can offset. Retail growth fades to low single digits as tariffs and a weaker consumer bite, International never earns the margin the mature countries did, and neither Leo nor Zoox ever becomes a business. The capex is spent regardless - that is the point of the bear case: roughly $200B a year of it goes out whether or not the revenue arrives.

International

Basis quarter$42.20B
Final quarter$49.47B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix20%

The same retail, seller, advertising and subscription businesses everywhere outside North America. $42.2B in 2026 Q2, up 15%, with $1.7B of operating income - a 4% margin against North America's 7.8%. The bet is that the newer countries follow the same path the mature ones did, which is the reason this line's terminal margin is so much higher than its current one.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $40.90B Reported
2025 Q4 $50.70B Reported
2026 Q1 $39.80B Reported
2026 Q2 $42.20B Reported
Online storesThird-party seller servicesAdvertising services (international)Subscription servicesEmerging-country marketplaces (India, Brazil, Middle East)
Sequential growth +3.4%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3.4% a quarter, about the 15% year-over-year posted. Currency moves this line and does not move North America.
International

Latest: $49.47B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $33.51B
2025Q2 $36.76B
2025Q3 $40.90B
2025Q4 $50.70B
2026Q1 $39.80B
2026Q2 $42.20B
2026Q3E $46.38B
2026Q4E $56.71B
2027Q1E $41.68B
2027Q2E $44.94B
2027Q3E $49.08B
2027Q4E $59.68B
2028Q1E $43.63B
2028Q2E $46.83B
2028Q3E $50.92B
2028Q4E $61.69B
2029Q1E $44.95B
2029Q2E $48.10B
2029Q3E $52.16B
2029Q4E $63.03B
2030Q1E $45.82B
2030Q2E $48.93B
2030Q3E $52.97B
2030Q4E $63.90B
2031Q1E $46.39B
2031Q2E $49.47B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth rate for the same reason as North America: no disclosed customer count, no disclosed unit volume, and a segment that spans Germany and Japan at one end and India and Brazil at the other. One invented average customer would be less informative than the growth rate itself.
  • 3.4% a quarter against the 15% year-over-year just posted, decaying to 1.5%. Quarterly revenue is seasonally shaped from reported 2025 sales after removing the 13% annual trend; the factors average to one and preserve the annual run rate. International grows slightly faster than North America and remains exposed to currency.
  • The margin assumption is the whole argument for this vertical. 7% EBITDA today gliding to 11% is the claim that the newer countries repeat what the established ones did once density arrived, and it is worth roughly a fifth of what North America's margin is worth. If India and Brazil never reach it, this line is a low-single-digit-margin business forever.
  • Capex intensity of 6% is below North America's: much of the international network is newer but smaller, and the segment leans harder on third-party logistics in markets where Amazon has not built out.
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