AMZN · Forward model · Zoox · Bear case
What has to happen in Zoox
Model as of
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Zoox
Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$135M
Final revenue mix0%
The purpose-built robotaxi Amazon has been running in Las Vegas and San Francisco, with no steering wheel and no disclosed revenue. It is the smallest line in the model and the one with the widest range of outcomes: a fleet business whose revenue is set by how many vehicles are on the road and how many hours a day each of them earns.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$0
Reported
2025 Q4
$0
Reported
2026 Q1
$0
Reported
2026 Q2
$0
Reported
Robotaxi ridesFleet operations and depot services
Capacity energised
1500 vehicles
at the basis quarter
1,500 vehicles on the road when the line opens in 2027 Q2. Amazon discloses no fleet size; this is an estimate.
Capacity added
500 vehicles/qtr
changing +6.0% per quarter
500 vehicles a quarter, growing 6% - a city-by-city rollout from a purpose-built factory, not a retrofit ramp.
Utilisation
40%
gliding toward 65%
40% of the fleet earning. Charging, cleaning, depot time and weather take the rest of the day.
Revenue per vehicles
$40000/qtr
drifting −1.0% per quarter
$40,000 per vehicle a quarter, about $440 of bookings a day. A busy vehicle in a dense city.
Zoox
Latest: $135M (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q2E | $28M |
| 2027Q3E | $35M |
| 2027Q4E | $43M |
| 2028Q1E | $50M |
| 2028Q2E | $57M |
| 2028Q3E | $65M |
| 2028Q4E | $72M |
| 2029Q1E | $79M |
| 2029Q2E | $86M |
| 2029Q3E | $93M |
| 2029Q4E | $99M |
| 2030Q1E | $106M |
| 2030Q2E | $112M |
| 2030Q3E | $118M |
| 2030Q4E | $124M |
| 2031Q1E | $129M |
| 2031Q2E | $135M |
Assumptions & reasoning
- No reported history and no carved-out base: Amazon has never disclosed Zoox revenue, ridership or fleet size, and the early rides have been free. The line is held at zero across every historical quarter and takes three quarters to open, so the first revenue counted is 2027 Q2.
- Modelled as vehicles x utilisation x revenue per vehicle rather than as a growth rate, because a robotaxi fleet has no revenue to grow from - the only question worth asking is how fast vehicles reach the road and how hard each one works once there.
- $40,000 per vehicle per quarter is roughly $440 of gross bookings a day, which is a busy vehicle in a dense city and a generous one anywhere else. Utilisation of 40% gliding to 65% is the share of the fleet actually earning: depot time, charging, cleaning and weather take the rest.
- The fleet reaches roughly 15,000 vehicles by 2031 in the base case, which is a city-by-city rollout rather than a national one, and produces well under $2B a year. Zoox is an option on Amazon, not a driver of it, and at this scale it moves the fair value by less than a dollar a share.
- The margin starts at -220% and glides to 30%: vehicles, depots, remote operations and safety staff are all real costs against almost no revenue at the start, and the terminal margin is deliberately below AWS's because a fleet wears out and has to be replaced.