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AMZN · Forward model · International · Jassy case

What has to happen in International

Model as of

This page changes International inside the complete AMZN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMZN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $577.82 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $77.72B 16% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $72.24B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Amazon's own stated case, taken at face value: the roughly $200B of 2026 capital spending is, in Jassy's words, an unusual chance to permanently change the size of AWS, the AI business compounds off the run rate he has already put a number on, and the parallel bets - robotics, Leo, same-day fulfilment - each land rather than each being a rounding error. It is worth being precise about what this case does NOT reach. Even with AWS carrying a higher build rate and a better margin, and with both zero-revenue lines succeeding, AWS is under 40% of terminal revenue: the retail segments still carry Amazon in 2031. And the two new lines together are under 2% of it. A case built on Leo and Zoox becoming material would need them roughly ten times larger than any disclosed driver supports, which is precisely why they are sliders here and not a forecast. The bet Jassy is actually making is that AWS's capex intensity comes down while its growth does not - and that is one line in this file, not five.

International

Basis quarter$42.20B
Final quarter$77.72B
Implied CAGR+13%
Final revenue mix16%

The same retail, seller, advertising and subscription businesses everywhere outside North America. $42.2B in 2026 Q2, up 15%, with $1.7B of operating income - a 4% margin against North America's 7.8%. The bet is that the newer countries follow the same path the mature ones did, which is the reason this line's terminal margin is so much higher than its current one.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $40.90B Reported
2025 Q4 $50.70B Reported
2026 Q1 $39.80B Reported
2026 Q2 $42.20B Reported
Online storesThird-party seller servicesAdvertising services (international)Subscription servicesEmerging-country marketplaces (India, Brazil, Middle East)
Sequential growth +3.4%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3.4% a quarter, about the 15% year-over-year posted. Currency moves this line and does not move North America.
International

Latest: $77.72B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $33.51B
2025Q2 $36.76B
2025Q3 $40.90B
2025Q4 $50.70B
2026Q1 $39.80B
2026Q2 $42.20B
2026Q3E $47.43B
2026Q4E $59.33B
2027Q1E $44.60B
2027Q2E $49.19B
2027Q3E $54.94B
2027Q4E $68.34B
2028Q1E $51.11B
2028Q2E $56.10B
2028Q3E $62.40B
2028Q4E $77.32B
2029Q1E $57.63B
2029Q2E $63.07B
2029Q3E $69.96B
2029Q4E $86.47B
2030Q1E $64.30B
2030Q2E $70.23B
2030Q3E $77.76B
2030Q4E $95.96B
2031Q1E $71.26B
2031Q2E $77.72B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth rate for the same reason as North America: no disclosed customer count, no disclosed unit volume, and a segment that spans Germany and Japan at one end and India and Brazil at the other. One invented average customer would be less informative than the growth rate itself.
  • 3.4% a quarter against the 15% year-over-year just posted, decaying to 1.5%. Quarterly revenue is seasonally shaped from reported 2025 sales after removing the 13% annual trend; the factors average to one and preserve the annual run rate. International grows slightly faster than North America and remains exposed to currency.
  • The margin assumption is the whole argument for this vertical. 7% EBITDA today gliding to 11% is the claim that the newer countries repeat what the established ones did once density arrived, and it is worth roughly a fifth of what North America's margin is worth. If India and Brazil never reach it, this line is a low-single-digit-margin business forever.
  • Capex intensity of 6% is below North America's: much of the international network is newer but smaller, and the segment leans harder on third-party logistics in markets where Amazon has not built out.
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