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AMZN · Forward model · International · Bull case

What has to happen in International

Model as of

This page changes International inside the complete AMZN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMZN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $635.64 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $85.81B 16% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $76.55B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The build is the moat. AWS holds its build rate instead of fading it, Trainium takes enough of the inference workload to hold revenue per megawatt flat rather than falling, and the margin keeps widening the way it did this quarter - 650 basis points in a year while absorbing the heaviest capex in the company's history. Retail margins keep pace as advertising compounds at mid-twenties growth on a base that costs almost nothing to serve, and Leo turns the constellation into a second subscription business with AWS-like economics once it is overhead.

International

Basis quarter$42.20B
Final quarter$85.81B
Implied CAGR+15%
Final revenue mix16%

The same retail, seller, advertising and subscription businesses everywhere outside North America. $42.2B in 2026 Q2, up 15%, with $1.7B of operating income - a 4% margin against North America's 7.8%. The bet is that the newer countries follow the same path the mature ones did, which is the reason this line's terminal margin is so much higher than its current one.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $40.90B Reported
2025 Q4 $50.70B Reported
2026 Q1 $39.80B Reported
2026 Q2 $42.20B Reported
Online storesThird-party seller servicesAdvertising services (international)Subscription servicesEmerging-country marketplaces (India, Brazil, Middle East)
Sequential growth +3.4%/qtr decaying toward +1.5% 3.4% a quarter, about the 15% year-over-year posted. Currency moves this line and does not move North America.
International

Latest: $85.81B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $33.51B
2025Q2 $36.76B
2025Q3 $40.90B
2025Q4 $50.70B
2026Q1 $39.80B
2026Q2 $42.20B
2026Q3E $47.67B
2026Q4E $59.93B
2027Q1E $45.27B
2027Q2E $50.18B
2027Q3E $56.32B
2027Q4E $70.40B
2028Q1E $52.91B
2028Q2E $58.37B
2028Q3E $65.24B
2028Q4E $81.24B
2029Q1E $60.85B
2029Q2E $66.93B
2029Q3E $74.61B
2029Q4E $92.67B
2030Q1E $69.26B
2030Q2E $76.02B
2030Q3E $84.59B
2030Q4E $104.90B
2031Q1E $78.28B
2031Q2E $85.81B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • A growth rate for the same reason as North America: no disclosed customer count, no disclosed unit volume, and a segment that spans Germany and Japan at one end and India and Brazil at the other. One invented average customer would be less informative than the growth rate itself.
  • 3.4% a quarter against the 15% year-over-year just posted, decaying to 1.5%. Quarterly revenue is seasonally shaped from reported 2025 sales after removing the 13% annual trend; the factors average to one and preserve the annual run rate. International grows slightly faster than North America and remains exposed to currency.
  • The margin assumption is the whole argument for this vertical. 7% EBITDA today gliding to 11% is the claim that the newer countries repeat what the established ones did once density arrived, and it is worth roughly a fifth of what North America's margin is worth. If India and Brazil never reach it, this line is a low-single-digit-margin business forever.
  • Capex intensity of 6% is below North America's: much of the international network is newer but smaller, and the segment leans harder on third-party logistics in markets where Amazon has not built out.
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