AMZN · Forward model · Bear case

The Bear case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-20

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

Amazon reports THREE operating segments - North America, International and AWS - and this model carries those three exactly as disclosed, plus two lines that have no reported revenue at all: Amazon Leo, the satellite broadband constellation, and Zoox, the robotaxi. Both are held at zero across every historical quarter and start in the projection, so nothing here is a re-cut of a number Amazon published. 2025 Q1 and Q2 are the segment figures as filed. The four quarters from 2025 Q3 to 2026 Q2 are the reported segment figures rounded to $0.1B in the source, with the rounding difference against the disclosed consolidated total ($180.169B, $213.390B, $181.519B, $200.606B) carried in North America, the largest line; no quarter is an apportionment, so none is flagged estimated. Advertising services - $19.8B in 2026 Q2, growing 26% - is NOT a vertical here: Amazon discloses it as a single global product line and does not split it between North America and International, so breaking it out would require inventing a geographic split the company has never published. It sits inside the two retail segments and is the main reason their margins are widening. What IS assumed throughout is the cost split: Amazon discloses segment operating income but not segment depreciation or segment capital expenditure, so every EBITDA margin and capex intensity on this page is ours. AWS carries the overwhelming majority of the AI infrastructure spend because that is where the money is going. Net cash is carried at zero: cash and marketable securities roughly offset funded debt at the basis quarter, and the lease obligations Amazon runs its fulfilment network on are not netted here at all.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

Capex outside the verticals

Each vertical's capex is a share of its own revenue, which is the right shape for capacity that scales with sales. These are not that: fixed-size programmes with their own schedule that spend whether or not any segment grows. They are added on top, and they are why free cash flow dips in the years below.

The projected path

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.