AMZN · Forward model · Amazon Leo · Bear case
What has to happen in Amazon Leo
Model as of
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Amazon Leo
Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$1.03B
Final revenue mix0%
The satellite broadband constellation formerly called Project Kuiper: an FCC licence for 3,236 satellites, more than $10B committed, consumer terminals and an enterprise and aviation book sold against Starlink. Amazon has never disclosed a dollar of revenue from it, so it earns nothing here until 2027 and starts from zero in every historical quarter.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$0
Reported
2025 Q4
$0
Reported
2026 Q1
$0
Reported
2026 Q2
$0
Reported
Consumer broadband subscriptionsEnterprise, government and maritime connectivityIn-flight connectivityTerminal hardware
Subscribers
200K
0.1% of a 300.0M addressable base
200,000 when the line opens in 2027 Q1 - a beta-scale base, not a disclosure. Amazon reports no subscriber count.
Addressable subscribers
300.0M
the S-curve ceiling
300M households and vehicles beyond terrestrial broadband. The ceiling is coverage and cost, not the population.
Net adds
250K/qtr
ramping toward 900K/qtr, throttled as the base approaches the TAM
250,000 a quarter at launch, well under what Starlink managed at the same point with a head start on terminals.
Net-add ceiling
900K/qtr
what supply can deliver at full rate
900,000 a quarter once the constellation is up - the supply ceiling, and the input that sets the whole line.
ARPU
$70.00/mo
drifting −0.5% per quarter, floor $45.00
$70 a month, below Starlink's US residential price: Leo arrives second and its best markets pay less.
Non-subscriber revenue
$150M/qtr
growing +6.0% per quarter
$150M a quarter of enterprise, government and aviation connectivity - where the announced contracts have been.
Amazon Leo
Latest: $1.03B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q3 | $0.00 |
| 2025Q4 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q1 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q2 | $0.00 |
| 2026Q3E | $0.00 |
| 2026Q4E | $0.00 |
| 2027Q1E | $232M |
| 2027Q2E | $294M |
| 2027Q3E | $358M |
| 2027Q4E | $422M |
| 2028Q1E | $486M |
| 2028Q2E | $549M |
| 2028Q3E | $609M |
| 2028Q4E | $666M |
| 2029Q1E | $719M |
| 2029Q2E | $769M |
| 2029Q3E | $815M |
| 2029Q4E | $857M |
| 2030Q1E | $896M |
| 2030Q2E | $930M |
| 2030Q3E | $960M |
| 2030Q4E | $987M |
| 2031Q1E | $1.01B |
| 2031Q2E | $1.03B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This vertical has NO reported history. Whatever Leo bills today sits inside North America's 'Other' revenue and is too small to see; rather than apportion a number out of a segment Amazon reports in full, the line is held at zero across all six quarters and opens in 2027 Q1.
- Net-adds mode rather than attach mode, because the constraint is satellites and terminals rather than willingness to pay: what limits subscribers is how much capacity is overhead and how many dishes can be built, which is exactly what a net-add ceiling describes.
- 900,000 net adds a quarter at the ceiling is a Starlink-shaped ramp arriving several years later against an incumbent that already holds the customers. It reaches roughly 11 million subscribers by 2031 - a real business at about $10B a year on the exit run rate, and still under 1% of Amazon.
- $70 a month is priced below Starlink's US residential tier, because Leo arrives second and the markets where it has the strongest claim - India, Africa, Latin America - will not pay a US price. The $150M of non-subscriber revenue is the enterprise, government and aviation book, which is where the announced contracts have actually been.
- The constellation itself is not charged to this vertical's capex intensity: it is a fixed-size programme on its own schedule, so it sits in corporate programmes at $20B over sixteen quarters and is spent whether or not a single subscriber signs up. The 120% intensity here covers ground stations, terminals and replenishment only.
- The margin starts at -180% and glides to 45%. A constellation is a fixed-cost asset with a marginal cost near zero once it is overhead, which is why the terminal margin is closer to AWS's than to retail's - and why a case where the subscribers never arrive is far worse than the revenue line alone suggests.