AMZN · Forward model · International
What has to happen in International
Model as of
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International
Basis quarter$42.20B
Final quarter$66.94B
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix18%
The same retail, seller, advertising and subscription businesses everywhere outside North America. $42.2B in 2026 Q2, up 15%, with $1.7B of operating income - a 4% margin against North America's 7.8%. The bet is that the newer countries follow the same path the mature ones did, which is the reason this line's terminal margin is so much higher than its current one.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$40.90B
Reported
2025 Q4
$50.70B
Reported
2026 Q1
$39.80B
Reported
2026 Q2
$42.20B
Reported
Online storesThird-party seller servicesAdvertising services (international)Subscription servicesEmerging-country marketplaces (India, Brazil, Middle East)
Sequential growth
+3.4%/qtr
decaying toward +1.5%
3.4% a quarter, about the 15% year-over-year posted. Currency moves this line and does not move North America.
International
Latest: $66.94B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $33.51B |
| 2025Q2 | $36.76B |
| 2025Q3 | $40.90B |
| 2025Q4 | $50.70B |
| 2026Q1 | $39.80B |
| 2026Q2 | $42.20B |
| 2026Q3E | $47.08B |
| 2026Q4E | $58.45B |
| 2027Q1E | $43.61B |
| 2027Q2E | $47.74B |
| 2027Q3E | $52.93B |
| 2027Q4E | $65.34B |
| 2028Q1E | $48.50B |
| 2028Q2E | $52.85B |
| 2028Q3E | $58.34B |
| 2028Q4E | $71.75B |
| 2029Q1E | $53.08B |
| 2029Q2E | $57.66B |
| 2029Q3E | $63.48B |
| 2029Q4E | $77.88B |
| 2030Q1E | $57.49B |
| 2030Q2E | $62.32B |
| 2030Q3E | $68.49B |
| 2030Q4E | $83.88B |
| 2031Q1E | $61.83B |
| 2031Q2E | $66.94B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- A growth rate for the same reason as North America: no disclosed customer count, no disclosed unit volume, and a segment that spans Germany and Japan at one end and India and Brazil at the other. One invented average customer would be less informative than the growth rate itself.
- 3.4% a quarter against the 15% year-over-year just posted, decaying to 1.5%. Quarterly revenue is seasonally shaped from reported 2025 sales after removing the 13% annual trend; the factors average to one and preserve the annual run rate. International grows slightly faster than North America and remains exposed to currency.
- The margin assumption is the whole argument for this vertical. 7% EBITDA today gliding to 11% is the claim that the newer countries repeat what the established ones did once density arrived, and it is worth roughly a fifth of what North America's margin is worth. If India and Brazil never reach it, this line is a low-single-digit-margin business forever.
- Capex intensity of 6% is below North America's: much of the international network is newer but smaller, and the segment leans harder on third-party logistics in markets where Amazon has not built out.