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AMZN · Forward model · North America · Bear case

What has to happen in North America

Model as of

This page changes North America inside the complete AMZN model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

AMZN forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $151.41 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $142.44B 56% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $92.16B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

AWS growth mean-reverts as the AI training build digests: the capacity gets energised, the demand behind it turns out to have been contracted at a discount, and revenue per megawatt falls faster than mix can offset. Retail growth fades to low single digits as tariffs and a weaker consumer bite, International never earns the margin the mature countries did, and neither Leo nor Zoox ever becomes a business. The capex is spent regardless - that is the point of the bear case: roughly $200B a year of it goes out whether or not the revenue arrives.

North America

Basis quarter$116.21B
Final quarter$142.44B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix56%

Online and physical stores, third-party seller services, subscriptions and the North American half of advertising. $116.2B in 2026 Q2, up 16%, with operating income up 21% to $9.1B - revenue growing fast for a business this size and profit growing faster, which is the mix shift toward advertising and seller services showing up in the margin line rather than in the growth line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $106.27B Reported
2025 Q4 $127.09B Reported
2026 Q1 $104.12B Reported
2026 Q2 $116.21B Reported
Online storesThird-party seller servicesAdvertising services (North America)Subscription services (Prime)Physical stores
Sequential growth +3.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.8% 3.6% a quarter, about the 16% year-over-year just posted. Q3 guidance is softer on a Prime Day timing shift.
North America

Latest: $142.44B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2025Q1 $92.89B
2025Q2 $100.07B
2025Q3 $106.27B
2025Q4 $127.09B
2026Q1 $104.12B
2026Q2 $116.21B
2026Q3E $122.96B
2026Q4E $146.27B
2027Q1E $116.79B
2027Q2E $124.75B
2027Q3E $131.20B
2027Q4E $155.20B
2028Q1E $123.30B
2028Q2E $131.12B
2028Q3E $137.33B
2028Q4E $161.86B
2029Q1E $128.17B
2029Q2E $135.89B
2029Q3E $141.95B
2029Q4E $166.90B
2030Q1E $131.88B
2030Q2E $139.55B
2030Q3E $145.52B
2030Q4E $170.82B
2031Q1E $134.78B
2031Q2E $142.44B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Carried as a growth rate rather than as customers x spend because Amazon publishes neither: the Prime member count has not been updated since the 200 million figure of 2021, and it is a global number that cannot be assigned to a segment. A customers-times-spend model here would be two invented inputs multiplied together to reproduce a number Amazon already discloses.
  • 3.6% a quarter is roughly the 16% year-over-year this segment just posted, and it decays to 1.75% - about 7% a year - by the end of the window. Holding mid-teens growth on a $450B-a-year revenue base for five years is the single easiest way to make this model say anything you like, so it is not held.
  • Quarterly revenue is seasonally shaped from Amazon's reported 2025 segment sales after removing the disclosed 10% annual growth trend. The factors average to one, so they move revenue between quarters without changing the underlying annual run rate: Q4 carries the holiday peak and Q1 resets below it.
  • The EBITDA margin of 12% is the disclosed 7.8% operating margin plus an assumed share of fulfilment and transportation depreciation. It glides to 15% because advertising and third-party seller fees grow faster than the retail revenue they attach to, which is the same mix shift that took operating income up 21% on 16% revenue growth.
  • Capex intensity of 7% covers fulfilment centres, the transportation network and the robotics programme. It is a small share of the roughly $200B Amazon has guided for 2026 - almost all of that is AWS, and it is charged there.
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