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ABBV · Forward model · Neuroscience · Bull case

What has to happen in Neuroscience

Model as of

This page changes Neuroscience inside the complete ABBV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABBV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $354.02 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.41B 18% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $29.67B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The immunology duo keeps compounding and the drag shrinks. Skyrizi grew 24.4% and Rinvoq 24.5% in the basis quarter, and management raised the full-year Skyrizi number again to approximately $21.7 billion; Humira is now small enough that its decline stops mattering, and neuroscience is broadening as Vyalev more than doubles. This case adds growth across the board, a point of margin, a higher immunology terminal rate and a 17.5x exit. FY2030 revenue reaches $91.6B.

Neuroscience

Basis quarter$3.23B
Final quarter$4.41B
Implied CAGR+6%
Final revenue mix18%

Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic, the migraine pair Ubrelvy and Qulipta, and the Vyalev launch. $3,228M in 2026 Q2, +20.3% year over year, with no loss of exclusivity inside the horizon. Prescription volume is not disclosed, so the portfolio revenue line carries the projection.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.84B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.96B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.88B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.23B Reported
VraylarBotox TherapeuticUbrelvyQuliptaVyalevOther Neuroscience
Sequential growth +0.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.6% 0.6% deseasonalised, held down to land FY2026 on the guided approximately $12.7 billion rather than on the +4.7% trailing trend.
Neuroscience

Latest: $4.41B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q3 $2.04B
2023Q4 $2.09B
2024Q1 $1.97B
2024Q2 $2.16B
2024Q3 $2.36B
2024Q4 $2.51B
2025Q1 $2.28B
2025Q2 $2.68B
2025Q3 $2.84B
2025Q4 $2.96B
2026Q1 $2.88B
2026Q2 $3.23B
2026Q3E $3.35B
2026Q4E $3.40B
2027Q1E $3.06B
2027Q2E $3.37B
2027Q3E $3.52B
2027Q4E $3.58B
2028Q1E $3.23B
2028Q2E $3.58B
2028Q3E $3.74B
2028Q4E $3.81B
2029Q1E $3.45B
2029Q2E $3.82B
2029Q3E $4.00B
2029Q4E $4.08B
2030Q1E $3.70B
2030Q2E $4.10B
2030Q3E $4.29B
2030Q4E $4.38B
2031Q1E $3.97B
2031Q2E $4.41B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the one vertical where the disclosed guidance and the disclosed trend disagree, and guidance wins for 2026. Deseasonalised sequential growth has averaged 5.1% a quarter over eight quarters, but management guided total neuroscience revenues of $12.7 billion for FY2026, and the first half already carries $6,103M. The model lands FY2026 at $12.82B.
  • Seasonality [0.923, 1.005, 1.034, 1.037]: the Q1 trough of about 8% below trend repeats in both windows with a 2.7pp spread, and Q2 through Q4 sit within 3.5pp of one another.
  • The terminal rate is above the opening rate on purpose. The opening rate is a guided-year constraint, not a statement that the portfolio has stopped compounding; Vyalev more than doubled year over year and Qulipta grew 30.9% in the basis quarter.
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