ABBV · Forward model · Neuroscience
What has to happen in Neuroscience
Model as of
This page changes Neuroscience inside the complete ABBV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.
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Neuroscience
Basis quarter$3.23B
Final quarter$4.11B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix18%
Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic, the migraine pair Ubrelvy and Qulipta, and the Vyalev launch. $3,228M in 2026 Q2, +20.3% year over year, with no loss of exclusivity inside the horizon. Prescription volume is not disclosed, so the portfolio revenue line carries the projection.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$2.84B
Reported
2025 Q4
$2.96B
Reported
2026 Q1
$2.88B
Reported
2026 Q2
$3.23B
Reported
VraylarBotox TherapeuticUbrelvyQuliptaVyalevOther Neuroscience
Sequential growth
+0.6%/qtr
decaying toward +1.6%
0.6% deseasonalised, held down to land FY2026 on the guided approximately $12.7 billion rather than on the +4.7% trailing trend.
Neuroscience
Latest: $4.11B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $2.04B |
| 2023Q4 | $2.09B |
| 2024Q1 | $1.97B |
| 2024Q2 | $2.16B |
| 2024Q3 | $2.36B |
| 2024Q4 | $2.51B |
| 2025Q1 | $2.28B |
| 2025Q2 | $2.68B |
| 2025Q3 | $2.84B |
| 2025Q4 | $2.96B |
| 2026Q1 | $2.88B |
| 2026Q2 | $3.23B |
| 2026Q3E | $3.34B |
| 2026Q4E | $3.37B |
| 2027Q1E | $3.03B |
| 2027Q2E | $3.33B |
| 2027Q3E | $3.46B |
| 2027Q4E | $3.51B |
| 2028Q1E | $3.16B |
| 2028Q2E | $3.48B |
| 2028Q3E | $3.62B |
| 2028Q4E | $3.68B |
| 2029Q1E | $3.32B |
| 2029Q2E | $3.66B |
| 2029Q3E | $3.82B |
| 2029Q4E | $3.88B |
| 2030Q1E | $3.51B |
| 2030Q2E | $3.87B |
| 2030Q3E | $4.04B |
| 2030Q4E | $4.12B |
| 2031Q1E | $3.72B |
| 2031Q2E | $4.11B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- This is the one vertical where the disclosed guidance and the disclosed trend disagree, and guidance wins for 2026. Deseasonalised sequential growth has averaged 5.1% a quarter over eight quarters, but management guided total neuroscience revenues of $12.7 billion for FY2026, and the first half already carries $6,103M. The model lands FY2026 at $12.82B.
- Seasonality [0.923, 1.005, 1.034, 1.037]: the Q1 trough of about 8% below trend repeats in both windows with a 2.7pp spread, and Q2 through Q4 sit within 3.5pp of one another.
- The terminal rate is above the opening rate on purpose. The opening rate is a guided-year constraint, not a statement that the portfolio has stopped compounding; Vyalev more than doubled year over year and Qulipta grew 30.9% in the basis quarter.