← ABBV forward model

ABBV · Forward model · Neuroscience · Bear case

What has to happen in Neuroscience

Model as of

This page changes Neuroscience inside the complete ABBV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABBV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $205.76 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $3.72B 19% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $25.52B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Erosion outruns the launches. Humira was still shrinking 35.9% year over year in the basis quarter, Imbruvica 29.4%, and aesthetics turned negative operationally on dermal-filler weakness - three of the six portfolios were flat or falling. This case holds immunology's terminal rate down, lets aesthetics and the All other residual keep declining, takes two points off margin and pays 13x exit EBITDA rather than 16x. FY2030 revenue lands at $76.2B against $85.0B in the base.

Neuroscience

Basis quarter$3.23B
Final quarter$3.72B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix19%

Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic, the migraine pair Ubrelvy and Qulipta, and the Vyalev launch. $3,228M in 2026 Q2, +20.3% year over year, with no loss of exclusivity inside the horizon. Prescription volume is not disclosed, so the portfolio revenue line carries the projection.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.84B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.96B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.88B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.23B Reported
VraylarBotox TherapeuticUbrelvyQuliptaVyalevOther Neuroscience
Sequential growth +0.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.6% 0.6% deseasonalised, held down to land FY2026 on the guided approximately $12.7 billion rather than on the +4.7% trailing trend.
Neuroscience

Latest: $3.72B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q3 $2.04B
2023Q4 $2.09B
2024Q1 $1.97B
2024Q2 $2.16B
2024Q3 $2.36B
2024Q4 $2.51B
2025Q1 $2.28B
2025Q2 $2.68B
2025Q3 $2.84B
2025Q4 $2.96B
2026Q1 $2.88B
2026Q2 $3.23B
2026Q3E $3.32B
2026Q4E $3.34B
2027Q1E $2.98B
2027Q2E $3.26B
2027Q3E $3.37B
2027Q4E $3.40B
2028Q1E $3.05B
2028Q2E $3.34B
2028Q3E $3.46B
2028Q4E $3.50B
2029Q1E $3.14B
2029Q2E $3.45B
2029Q3E $3.58B
2029Q4E $3.62B
2030Q1E $3.25B
2030Q2E $3.58B
2030Q3E $3.71B
2030Q4E $3.76B
2031Q1E $3.38B
2031Q2E $3.72B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the one vertical where the disclosed guidance and the disclosed trend disagree, and guidance wins for 2026. Deseasonalised sequential growth has averaged 5.1% a quarter over eight quarters, but management guided total neuroscience revenues of $12.7 billion for FY2026, and the first half already carries $6,103M. The model lands FY2026 at $12.82B.
  • Seasonality [0.923, 1.005, 1.034, 1.037]: the Q1 trough of about 8% below trend repeats in both windows with a 2.7pp spread, and Q2 through Q4 sit within 3.5pp of one another.
  • The terminal rate is above the opening rate on purpose. The opening rate is a guided-year constraint, not a statement that the portfolio has stopped compounding; Vyalev more than doubled year over year and Qulipta grew 30.9% in the basis quarter.
ABBV model map

Explore another vertical