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ABBV · Forward model · Aesthetics · Bull case

What has to happen in Aesthetics

Model as of

This page changes Aesthetics inside the complete ABBV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABBV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $354.02 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.53B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $10.53B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The immunology duo keeps compounding and the drag shrinks. Skyrizi grew 24.4% and Rinvoq 24.5% in the basis quarter, and management raised the full-year Skyrizi number again to approximately $21.7 billion; Humira is now small enough that its decline stops mattering, and neuroscience is broadening as Vyalev more than doubles. This case adds growth across the board, a point of margin, a higher immunology terminal rate and a 17.5x exit. FY2030 revenue reaches $91.6B.

Aesthetics

Basis quarter$1.28B
Final quarter$1.53B
Implied CAGR+4%
Final revenue mix6%

Botox Cosmetic and the Juvederm collection are consumer-paid procedures sold directly to physicians, so volume tracks discretionary spending rather than reimbursement. $1,282M in 2026 Q2, +0.2% reported and -0.9% operational, with management citing continued headwinds in key dermal filler markets.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.19B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.29B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.19B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.28B Reported
Botox CosmeticJuvederm CollectionOther Aesthetics
Sequential growth +0.3%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% 0.3% deseasonalised - flat, matching a trailing four-quarter rate of 0.06% and an operationally negative basis quarter.
Aesthetics

Latest: $1.53B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q3 $1.24B
2023Q4 $1.37B
2024Q1 $1.25B
2024Q2 $1.39B
2024Q3 $1.24B
2024Q4 $1.30B
2025Q1 $1.10B
2025Q2 $1.28B
2025Q3 $1.19B
2025Q4 $1.29B
2026Q1 $1.19B
2026Q2 $1.28B
2026Q3E $1.18B
2026Q4E $1.28B
2027Q1E $1.14B
2027Q2E $1.32B
2027Q3E $1.22B
2027Q4E $1.32B
2028Q1E $1.18B
2028Q2E $1.36B
2028Q3E $1.26B
2028Q4E $1.37B
2029Q1E $1.23B
2029Q2E $1.41B
2029Q3E $1.31B
2029Q4E $1.42B
2030Q1E $1.27B
2030Q2E $1.47B
2030Q3E $1.36B
2030Q4E $1.48B
2031Q1E $1.33B
2031Q2E $1.53B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Seasonality [0.926, 1.059, 0.972, 1.042] gives Q2 and Q4 peaks around a Q3 trough, and that shape repeats in both windows with spreads of 0.2pp on Q3 and 0.4pp on Q4. The Q1 factor is the weak one: a 7.4pp signal against a 5.1pp window-to-window spread, so treat Q1 as the least certain quarter of this vertical.
  • The projected path is $4.92B in FY2026 against $4.86B reported for FY2025 and $5.27B by FY2030. That is the assumption most exposed to being wrong in either direction, because it is the only vertical whose demand is a discretionary consumer purchase.
  • China exposure inside aesthetics is not disclosed at the portfolio level, so no geographic split is modelled.
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