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ABBV · Forward model · Oncology · Bull case

What has to happen in Oncology

Model as of

This page changes Oncology inside the complete ABBV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABBV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $354.02 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.90B 8% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $13.98B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

The immunology duo keeps compounding and the drag shrinks. Skyrizi grew 24.4% and Rinvoq 24.5% in the basis quarter, and management raised the full-year Skyrizi number again to approximately $21.7 billion; Humira is now small enough that its decline stops mattering, and neuroscience is broadening as Vyalev more than doubles. This case adds growth across the board, a point of margin, a higher immunology terminal rate and a 17.5x exit. FY2030 revenue reaches $91.6B.

Oncology

Basis quarter$1.65B
Final quarter$1.90B
Implied CAGR+3%
Final revenue mix8%

Venclexta, Elahere and Epkinly growth against Imbruvica erosion, which nets to a flat portfolio: $1,650M in 2026 Q2, -1.6% year over year, against $1,634M two years earlier. Part of the line is collaboration profit share rather than product sales, so no unit driver exists.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.68B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.66B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.63B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.65B Reported
VenclextaImbruvicaElahereEpkinlyOther Oncology
Sequential growth −0.2%/qtr decaying toward +0.8% -0.2% a quarter, the trailing four-quarter sequential rate, with Imbruvica still down 29.4% year over year.
Oncology

Latest: $1.90B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q3 $1.51B
2023Q4 $1.51B
2024Q1 $1.54B
2024Q2 $1.63B
2024Q3 $1.69B
2024Q4 $1.69B
2025Q1 $1.63B
2025Q2 $1.68B
2025Q3 $1.68B
2025Q4 $1.66B
2026Q1 $1.63B
2026Q2 $1.65B
2026Q3E $1.65B
2026Q4E $1.66B
2027Q1E $1.66B
2027Q2E $1.67B
2027Q3E $1.68B
2027Q4E $1.69B
2028Q1E $1.70B
2028Q2E $1.71B
2028Q3E $1.72B
2028Q4E $1.73B
2029Q1E $1.75B
2029Q2E $1.76B
2029Q3E $1.78B
2029Q4E $1.79B
2030Q1E $1.81B
2030Q2E $1.83B
2030Q3E $1.85B
2030Q4E $1.86B
2031Q1E $1.88B
2031Q2E $1.90B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Aseasonal on the brief's evidence, and that is a finding rather than a gap. The observed factors span only 0.976 to 1.013, about 4pp peak to trough, against a window-to-window spread of 0.5 to 1.2pp; the Imbruvica loss-of-exclusivity trend dominates any calendar shape.
  • The model holds the portfolio at $6.57B in FY2026 against $6.66B reported for FY2025, then lets it recover to $6.94B by FY2030 - a 1.4% annual rate over the horizon, which is a mix shift, not a growth thesis.
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