ABBV · Forward model · Immunology · Bull case
What has to happen in Immunology
Model as of
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Immunology
Basis quarter$8.79B
Final quarter$15.31B
Implied CAGR+12%
Final revenue mix61%
Skyrizi and Rinvoq more than replace Humira. At $8,786M in 2026 Q2 the portfolio is 52% of AbbVie revenue and effectively all of its growth: +15.1% year over year while Humira fell 35.9% to $756M. No script or patient volume is published, so the disclosed portfolio revenue line is the only driver the disclosure supports.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$7.88B
Reported
2025 Q4
$8.63B
Reported
2026 Q1
$7.29B
Reported
2026 Q2
$8.79B
Reported
SkyriziRinvoqHumira
Sequential growth
+4.0%/qtr
decaying toward +1.2%
4.0% deseasonalised. The last three non-basis quarters ran +4.3%, +6.0% and +5.9% on the same deseasonalised series.
Immunology
Latest: $15.31B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023Q3 | $6.78B |
| 2023Q4 | $6.95B |
| 2024Q1 | $5.37B |
| 2024Q2 | $6.97B |
| 2024Q3 | $7.05B |
| 2024Q4 | $7.29B |
| 2025Q1 | $6.26B |
| 2025Q2 | $7.63B |
| 2025Q3 | $7.88B |
| 2025Q4 | $8.63B |
| 2026Q1 | $7.29B |
| 2026Q2 | $8.79B |
| 2026Q3E | $9.08B |
| 2026Q4E | $9.75B |
| 2027Q1E | $8.08B |
| 2027Q2E | $10.26B |
| 2027Q3E | $10.50B |
| 2027Q4E | $11.18B |
| 2028Q1E | $9.19B |
| 2028Q2E | $11.59B |
| 2028Q3E | $11.80B |
| 2028Q4E | $12.50B |
| 2029Q1E | $10.23B |
| 2029Q2E | $12.85B |
| 2029Q3E | $13.03B |
| 2029Q4E | $13.76B |
| 2030Q1E | $11.23B |
| 2030Q2E | $14.08B |
| 2030Q3E | $14.25B |
| 2030Q4E | $15.02B |
| 2031Q1E | $12.23B |
| 2031Q2E | $15.31B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- Seasonality [0.852, 1.045, 1.035, 1.068] is the brief's ratio-to-centred-four-quarter-moving-average result over twelve quarters. The Q1 trough of about 15% below trend repeats in both the 2024 and 2025 windows and the widest window-to-window spread is 5.5pp, well inside the signal. The cause is the January US gross-to-net reset: deductible resets, Part D re-enrolment and wholesaler destocking.
- With seasonality on, growthQoQ is a deseasonalised trend rate, not the sequential print. The model's first two projected quarters are $9,050M and $9,681M, which is +14.8% and +12.2% year over year against the reported 2025 Q3 and Q4.
- Model FY2026 immunology is $34.81B. That sits against the only disclosed FY2026 product number for the portfolio, Skyrizi at approximately $21.7 billion, plus a Rinvoq and Humira remainder that AbbVie has not guided by portfolio total.
- Margin is the consolidated assumption, not a portfolio disclosure: AbbVie runs as a single reportable segment and publishes no per-portfolio profitability at all.