ABBV · Forward model · Bull case

The Bull case, 20 quarters out

Model as of 2026-08-27

Each segment is projected from its own operating driver, rolled up into consolidated cash flow, and discounted back to a fair value per share. The assumptions below are editable — change them and every number on this page moves with them.

AbbVie operates as ONE reportable segment. The six verticals here are the revenue disaggregation AbbVie itself publishes - Immunology, Neuroscience, Oncology, Aesthetics, Other key products and the All other residual - and nothing finer is modelled, because nothing finer is disclosed. Five portfolio totals come from each quarter's own 8-K Exhibit 99.1 Key Product Revenues table; All other is the residual of consolidated revenue less those five, marked estimated on every point, and it reproduces the 10-Q All other line exactly at $1,109M for the basis quarter. The six verticals sum to the reported $16,990M of 2026 Q2 net revenues with no plug. No per-portfolio margin exists in any filing, so all six carry the same assumed 49.5% EBITDA margin - consolidated adjusted operating margin of 48.3% plus about 1.2 points of depreciation - and the 1.3% corporate overhead is the bridge from that basis-quarter print to the guided FY2026 adjusted operating margin approaching 47% of sales. Tax is the 14.5% adjusted rate the CFO forecast for the full year, applied unlevered: interest expense is not deducted from cash flow, because the $64.3B of net debt is deducted from enterprise value instead. Eye care disappeared from the disclosed tables in 2026 Q1 and was reclassified into All other with prior periods restated; that is a presentation change, not a divestiture. The Apogee acquisition announced 31 July 2026 is not in the base case at all - it had not closed at the basis quarter - and appears only as a named scenario.

Where each case comes from

From cash flow to fair value

The projected path

The published model's 20 quarters. The horizon and sliders above do not change this table.

Every row is projected. A year-over-year change is shown only where the quarter it compares against exists — an em dash means there is no comparable quarter, not a flat year.

Model revisions

Assumptions are marked to reality as each quarter prints. Every change is appended here, with the fair value the model produced at the time, so the model's own history stays visible.