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ABBV · Forward model · Neuroscience · Apogee case

What has to happen in Neuroscience

Model as of

This page changes Neuroscience inside the complete ABBV model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

ABBV forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $303.96 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $4.11B 17% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $28.03B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

AbbVie buys the next immunology wave rather than growing it. Zumilokibart in atopic dermatitis and APG273 in asthma would add a second immunology engine beyond Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Modelled as a 6% step up in immunology revenue from 2029 Q3, three years after the announced close, which adds $3.09B to terminal-year revenue. What this case does NOT do: the $10.9 billion of equity value is not deducted from net cash and the $0.14 of 2026 EPS dilution is not in the path, so it is the revenue upside gross of what it costs.

Neuroscience

Basis quarter$3.23B
Final quarter$4.11B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix17%

Vraylar, Botox Therapeutic, the migraine pair Ubrelvy and Qulipta, and the Vyalev launch. $3,228M in 2026 Q2, +20.3% year over year, with no loss of exclusivity inside the horizon. Prescription volume is not disclosed, so the portfolio revenue line carries the projection.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $2.84B Reported
2025 Q4 $2.96B Reported
2026 Q1 $2.88B Reported
2026 Q2 $3.23B Reported
VraylarBotox TherapeuticUbrelvyQuliptaVyalevOther Neuroscience
Sequential growth +0.6%/qtr decaying toward +1.6% 0.6% deseasonalised, held down to land FY2026 on the guided approximately $12.7 billion rather than on the +4.7% trailing trend.
Neuroscience

Latest: $4.11B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2023Q3 $2.04B
2023Q4 $2.09B
2024Q1 $1.97B
2024Q2 $2.16B
2024Q3 $2.36B
2024Q4 $2.51B
2025Q1 $2.28B
2025Q2 $2.68B
2025Q3 $2.84B
2025Q4 $2.96B
2026Q1 $2.88B
2026Q2 $3.23B
2026Q3E $3.34B
2026Q4E $3.37B
2027Q1E $3.03B
2027Q2E $3.33B
2027Q3E $3.46B
2027Q4E $3.51B
2028Q1E $3.16B
2028Q2E $3.48B
2028Q3E $3.62B
2028Q4E $3.68B
2029Q1E $3.32B
2029Q2E $3.66B
2029Q3E $3.82B
2029Q4E $3.88B
2030Q1E $3.51B
2030Q2E $3.87B
2030Q3E $4.04B
2030Q4E $4.12B
2031Q1E $3.72B
2031Q2E $4.11B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • This is the one vertical where the disclosed guidance and the disclosed trend disagree, and guidance wins for 2026. Deseasonalised sequential growth has averaged 5.1% a quarter over eight quarters, but management guided total neuroscience revenues of $12.7 billion for FY2026, and the first half already carries $6,103M. The model lands FY2026 at $12.82B.
  • Seasonality [0.923, 1.005, 1.034, 1.037]: the Q1 trough of about 8% below trend repeats in both windows with a 2.7pp spread, and Q2 through Q4 sit within 3.5pp of one another.
  • The terminal rate is above the opening rate on purpose. The opening rate is a guided-year constraint, not a statement that the portfolio has stopped compounding; Vyalev more than doubled year over year and Qulipta grew 30.9% in the basis quarter.
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