Vista Energy joins the tracked set today. It is a Mexico-domiciled company with a New York listing whose oil comes out of the ground in Argentina — Vaca Muerta, the Neuquina basin — and on the headline number it is the fastest-growing name in the energy coverage here: trailing revenue of $3.53 billion, up 77.8% year over year, against a free-cash-flow margin of 8.2%. That is a Rule of 40 score of 86.
Look at the quarters and the picture changes shape.
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | FCF | FCF margin | R40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q1 | $317.2M | — | $25.0M | 7.9% | — |
| 2023 Q2 | $239.6M | — | -$74.0M | -30.9% | — |
| 2023 Q3 | $302.8M | — | -$46.7M | -15.4% | — |
| 2023 Q4 | $309.2M | — | $114.0M | 36.9% | — |
| 2024 Q1 | $317.4M | +0.1% | -$95.2M | -30.0% | -29.9 |
| 2024 Q2 | $396.7M | +65.6% | $7.5M | 1.9% | 67.5 |
| 2024 Q3 | $462.4M | +52.7% | -$74.0M | -16.0% | 36.7 |
| 2024 Q4 | $471.3M | +52.4% | $56.8M | 12.1% | 64.5 |
| 2025 Q1 | $438.5M | +38.2% | -$221.6M | -50.5% | -12.4 |
| 2025 Q2 | $610.5M | +53.9% | -$505.9M | -82.9% | -29.0 |
| 2025 Q3 | $706.1M | +52.7% | -$31.6M | -4.5% | 48.2 |
| 2025 Q4 | $719.1M | +52.6% | $88.2M | 12.3% | 64.8 |
| 2026 Q1 | $865.0M | +97.3% | -$252.6M | -29.2% | 68.1 |
| 2026 Q2 | $1,234.9M | +102.3% | $484.8M | 39.3% | 141.5 |
Eight of the fourteen quarters burned cash. The score swings from -29.9 to +141.5 and back across a two-year window in which every year-over-year revenue comparison here is positive. That is not noise in the measurement; it is what the business does.
Free cash flow here is a drilling schedule, not a margin
Free cash flow in this series is operating cash flow less payments for property, plant and equipment and less payments for intangibles — the ordinary definition, and deliberately not Vista's own headline figure, which nets in what it pays for acquisitions. Over 2025 it sums to -$670.9 million, and that ties exactly to the full-year cash flow statement: $796.2 million of operating cash against $1,455.4 million of capital expenditure and $11.7 million of intangibles.
The capital line is the story. Vista spent between $286 million and $499 million on property and equipment in every quarter from 2025 Q1 onward, against operating cash flow that arrives in lumps: $66.4 million in 2025 Q1, minus $9.4 million in 2025 Q2, then $987.2 million in 2026 Q2. The 2025 Q2 hole is a single line — an income tax payment of $215.0 million inside the quarter — and the 2026 Q2 spike is partly the reverse, a $274.2 million release of working capital and only $60.4 million of tax paid.
So the free-cash-flow margin is not a property of the company. It is a property of which quarter you are standing in.
Two acquisitions, not one growth curve
The revenue line has two step changes in it and both were bought.
Petronas E&P Argentina, now Vista Energy LACh, was acquired under a sale and purchase agreement signed 15 April 2025 and consolidates from 1 April 2025. It carries a 50% working interest in the La Amarga Chica block, operated by YPF. That block alone produced 41,867 bbl/d net to Vista in the June 2026 quarter — 31% of its oil.
Equinor's Argentine business followed, adding a 25.1% non-operated working interest in Bandurria Sur and 35% in Bajo del Toro, consolidating from 1 May 2026. The board approved a $325.0 million capital increase and the issuance of 6,223,220 series A shares on 7 May 2026 to pay for it. Shares outstanding went from 104,299,703 at the end of 2025 to 111,442,402 at 30 June 2026.
Vista itself splits the June-quarter production growth for you: total production of 156,061 boe/d was 32% above the prior year, "of which 20% represented organic growth and the remaining 12% the consolidation" of the two Equinor interests. Two thirds organic, one third bought — in the quarter. Across the fourteen quarters here the acquired share is much larger than that.
The June quarter is the best one on file, and the comparison is not clean
Q2 2026 revenue of $1,234.9 million and gross profit of $708.3 million are both records, and the 57.4% gross margin is close to ten points above the 2025 average of 47.5%. Two things drove it. Realised crude was $89.4/bbl, up 44% year over year on Brent and better differentials, against a lifting cost of $4.5/boe — down 4% year over year, because fixed costs got diluted across a third more barrels. Operating unit costs went nowhere while price and volume both went up; that is where the margin came from.
Net profit was $333.0 million, of which $321.7 million was attributable to shareholders and $11.3 million to YPF's minority in the Bandurria vehicle — the first quarter in this series with a non-controlling interest in it at all. Basic earnings per share of $3.06 is the highest here, but the year-ago $2.26 included a $202.5 million gain on the La Amarga Chica business combination. Strip that and the underlying comparison is far wider than the printed 35%.
What the numbers here are, precisely
Every figure in the series comes from Vista's own quarterly press release, furnished on Form 6-K. Vista is a foreign private issuer: it files a 20-F once a year and has no 10-Q, so there is no quarterly XBRL to reconcile against and the income statement and cash flow statement in the release are the only source. It reports in US dollars, so there is no translation to argue about — an unusual mercy for an Argentine operator. Each ADS represents one series A share, so per-share and per-ADS are the same number.
Two consequences worth naming. First, revenue for the 2023 quarters is taken from the comparative column of the 2024 releases rather than as originally printed, because Vista grossed royalties up into both revenue and cost of sales during 2024; on the restated basis 2023 Q1 revenue is $317.2 million rather than the $303.2 million published at the time. Gross profit and net income are unaffected. Second, EPS throughout is IFRS basic — net profit divided by the weighted average ordinary shares stated in each release — never the adjusted figure Vista also publishes. Adjusted EPS in the June quarter was $2.4 against the $3.06 stored here; mixing the two would break the series.
Cheap on trailing earnings, if you believe the trailing earnings
Trailing four-quarter EPS is $7.92. At $71.46 that is a P/E of 9.0, the lowest reading in the stored P/E series, which has ranged from 4.8 to 11.4 across eleven quarters. Twelve analysts polled by S&P Global carry a Strong Buy consensus and a $98.71 average target, on a range of $82.04 to $123.35.
But $7.92 of trailing EPS contains a $490.5 million gain on business combinations recognised across 2025 — Vista's own accounting for buying assets below their fair value. That is real under IFRS and it is not repeatable. The 2026 earnings the consensus is priced off do not lean on it.
What the October print has to answer
- Whether the June cash quarter repeats. $484.8 million of free cash flow in one quarter is more than the previous five quarters combined lost. Much of it was working capital. The question is what the run-rate looks like with capex still near $500 million a quarter and no acquisition to absorb.
- What Bandurria Sur does with a full quarter. May and June contributed 21.2 Mboe/d of working-interest production from Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro together. September will be the first full quarter of it.
- Whether $89.4/bbl holds. The realised price rose 49% quarter over quarter. Almost half the gross-margin expansion sits on that, and none of it is under Vista's control.
Vista has not yet put a Q3 date on its investor-events page. The pattern of the last three years puts it in the third week of October — 24 October 2023, 23 October 2024, 22 October 2025. The calendar here stays blank until the company announces the date.
Revenue, gross profit, net profit, operating cash flow, capital expenditure and the weighted average share count are taken from the Consolidated Income Statement and Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows in Vista's quarterly results releases, furnished on Form 6-K under CIK 0001762506, one release per quarter from 2023 Q1 through 2026 Q2. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less payments for acquisitions of property, plant and equipment and biological assets and less payments for acquisitions of other intangible assets. EPS is IFRS basic. Production, realised prices, lifting cost and the organic-versus-acquired split are from the same releases. Share counts, the ADS ratio, the corporate history and the executive team are from the Form 20-F filed 28 April 2026. Analyst consensus is S&P Global via stockanalysis.com as of 28 August 2026.
