GE Vernova joins the tracked set today with the shortest history on the site that is not a fresh IPO. It was spun out of General Electric on 2 April 2024 and has filed nine quarters of standalone results, the most recent on 22 July 2026. Nine is what we store. Nine is all there is.
Why the chart starts in June 2024
GE Vernova's Form 10 and its first 10-K both carry combined carve-out financials for the pre-spin years — 2022 and 2023 revenue, gross profit, cash flow and even a notional earnings per share, prepared as if the business had already been separate. Those numbers are filed with the SEC and they are not made up. The 2023 revenue line, $33.2 billion, sits in the same 10-K as the 2024 one.
We are not using them, and the reason is narrow: they are a different basis. Carve-out accounting allocates a parent's corporate costs, tax positions and capital structure to a business that did not have its own. The pre-spin EPS is computed on a share count that did not exist. Bolting that onto post-spin reporting would produce a fourteen-quarter chart in which the first five quarters and the last nine answer different questions, and every year-over-year comparison across April 2024 would be comparing an estimate to an actual. A nine-quarter series that is one thing end to end is worth more than a fourteen-quarter series that is two things. Every metric on the page — revenue, GAAP diluted EPS, free cash flow, gross margin, P/E — starts at the quarter ending 30 June 2024 and comes from the company's own 10-Qs, 10-Ks and Item 2.02 earnings releases.
The Rule of 40, from the beginning
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY | FCF | FCF margin | R40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q2 | $8.20B | — | $0.82B | 10.0% | — |
| 2024 Q3 | $8.91B | — | $0.97B | 10.9% | — |
| 2024 Q4 | $10.56B | — | $0.57B | 5.4% | — |
| 2025 Q1 | $8.03B | — | $0.98B | 12.1% | — |
| 2025 Q2 | $9.11B | +11.1% | $0.19B | 2.1% | 13.2 |
| 2025 Q3 | $9.97B | +11.8% | $0.73B | 7.4% | 19.2 |
| 2025 Q4 | $10.96B | +3.8% | $1.81B | 16.5% | 20.3 |
| 2026 Q1 | $9.34B | +16.3% | $4.79B | 51.3% | 67.6 |
| 2026 Q2 | $11.10B | +21.9% | $5.11B | 46.0% | 67.9 |
Free cash flow here is operating cash flow less purchases of productive assets, both taken from the filed cash-flow statements and differenced out of the year-to-date columns. It reconciles to the company's own non-GAAP free cash flow: $3.7 billion for 2025 against our $3.71 billion, and $5.1 billion for the June 2026 quarter against our $5.106 billion.
The first four quarters have no R40 score because they have no year-ago comparison on this basis — that is the honest cost of not splicing, and it is the only place the decision shows up as a gap.
What the table says is that the score more than tripled in two quarters and almost none of it was revenue growth. Growth went from +11.8% to +21.9%; the free-cash-flow margin went from 7.4% to 46.0%. GE Vernova generated more cash in the first half of 2026 — $9.90 billion — than in its first two years combined.
The cash is real; the earnings line is not what it looks like
That cash is working capital arriving ahead of revenue, which is what a long-cycle order book does when it inflects. Second-quarter orders were $24.2 billion against $11.1 billion of revenue, up 88% organically, and backlog reached $176 billion. Gas equipment under contract — firm backlog plus slot reservation agreements — went from 83 GW at the end of 2025 to 116 GW by June 2026, with management now guiding to at least 125 GW by year end. Customers pay to hold a slot years before a turbine ships.
The GAAP earnings line is a different story, and the P/E chart needs a warning label. Trailing twelve-month diluted EPS is $34.94, and two quarters supply $30.83 of it:
- December 2025 quarter: $13.39 diluted EPS, including a $2.9 billion U.S. tax valuation allowance release. Net income was $3.67 billion on $10.96 billion of revenue.
- March 2026 quarter: $17.44 diluted EPS, including $4.5 billion of pre-tax M&A net gains, primarily from buying the remaining 50% of grid-equipment maker Prolec GE.
Strip both and the underlying quarters run in the $1.60–$2.50 range. The stored P/E series is arithmetically correct — 33.6x at the June 2026 quarter, on a $1,174.86 month-end close — and it is not a valuation. The 25.4x printed for March 2026 is lower than the 36.6x printed for December 2025 while the stock nearly doubled between them, purely because the denominator absorbed a one-time gain. Adjusted EBITDA margin, which management guides to, was 11.3% in the June quarter, up 340 basis points organically.
What the CEO is actually selling
At the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference in May, Scott Strazik made the case that GE Vernova is an installed-base business wearing an equipment company's clothes. Its 7,000 gas turbines, 59,000 wind turbines and 60 nuclear plants generate about a quarter of the world's electricity and roughly half of America's, and carry an $87 billion services backlog he expects to yield around $20 billion of services revenue by 2027. The $76 billion equipment backlog has grown 80% since the spin. His argument is that the 100 GW of gas then on contract is mostly baseload, against an installed base where only 200 of 720 GW runs baseload today — a number he projects doubling to at least 400 GW by the middle of the 2030s.
Wind is the part that does not fit. Second-quarter Wind orders fell 40% organically and revenue fell 10%, with segment EBITDA losses widening on Onshore volume and Offshore project costs. Power and Electrification carried the quarter; Electrification revenue rose 68%, of which less than half was organic, because Prolec GE is now consolidated.
Guidance and the next print
Management raised 2026 guidance twice in six months and now expects $45.5–$46.5 billion of revenue and $11.5–$12.5 billion of free cash flow, up from $6.5–$7.5 billion three months earlier. The free-cash-flow guide nearly doubled in one quarter. Consensus is Buy across 37 analysts with a $1,236 average target against a $898.53 close on 31 August.
Third-quarter results are due before the open on 28 October 2026, per GE Vernova's own investor events calendar. The number to watch is not revenue — it is whether the working-capital release that produced two 45%-plus free-cash-flow quarters is a permanent feature of booking slot reservations years ahead, or a pull-forward that reverses when shipments catch up. Guidance implies roughly $2 billion of free cash flow across the second half against $9.9 billion in the first, which is management's own answer: mostly the latter.
One housekeeping note. The CFO seat changes hands on 1 January 2027. Kenneth Parks, CFO since before the spin, retires on 2 April 2027; Rivian's Claire McDonough joins on 1 November 2026 and succeeds him.
