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UBER · Forward model · Freight · Bear case

What has to happen in Freight

Model as of

This page changes Freight inside the complete UBER model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UBER forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $63.90 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.29B 7% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution −$1.31B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Bookings growth halves from here, the Mobility revenue margin never recovers from the 2026 accounting change, segment margins run five points below what Uber reported in June, and Delivery Hero lands worse than its own perimeter suggests. The exit multiple de-rates to 2.6x terminal revenue. Fair value $63.90 - below the current price, which is what a genuine growth stall looks like.

Freight

Basis quarter$1.58B
Final quarter$1.29B
Implied CAGR−4%
Final revenue mix7%

Brokerage that connects carriers with shippers, reported gross so revenue is almost exactly bookings. It has been roughly flat for three years and has never made money at the segment line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.31B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.27B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.34B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.58B Reported
Freight brokerageTransportation management
Units 1571/qtr growing +1.0% per quarter Freight Gross Bookings, $1,571M in the June quarter, in millions of dollars.
Price per unit $1M drifting 0.0% per quarter Just over $1M of revenue per $1M of bookings: Freight is reported on a gross basis.
Freight

Latest: $1.29B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.28B
2024Q2 $1.27B
2024Q3 $1.31B
2024Q4 $1.27B
2025Q1 $1.26B
2025Q2 $1.26B
2025Q3 $1.31B
2025Q4 $1.27B
2026Q1 $1.34B
2026Q2 $1.58B
2026Q3E $1.57B
2026Q4E $1.55B
2027Q1E $1.54B
2027Q2E $1.52B
2027Q3E $1.50B
2027Q4E $1.49B
2028Q1E $1.47B
2028Q2E $1.46B
2028Q3E $1.44B
2028Q4E $1.43B
2029Q1E $1.41B
2029Q2E $1.40B
2029Q3E $1.39B
2029Q4E $1.37B
2030Q1E $1.36B
2030Q2E $1.34B
2030Q3E $1.33B
2030Q4E $1.32B
2031Q1E $1.30B
2031Q2E $1.29B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Freight is about 3% of revenue and has produced a segment operating loss in every reported quarter, so it moves the fair value very little in any direction.
  • It is kept as its own vertical rather than folded away because Uber reports it as one of three segments, and removing it would break the reconciliation to consolidated revenue.
  • The 25% year-on-year bookings growth in the June quarter comes off a multi-year freight recession rather than from share gains, so it is not extrapolated.
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