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UBER · Forward model · Freight · Dara case

What has to happen in Freight

Model as of

This page changes Freight inside the complete UBER model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UBER forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $212.04 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.60B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $1.32B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

What the company's own stated end-state requires: 99 markets, $236bn of pro-forma bookings, the largest AV platform, and Delivery Hero high-single-digit accretive by year three. Terminal revenue of $158bn, 23.1% non-GAAP operating margin, exit at 3.8x. It reaches $212.04. Three things it does NOT reach or account for. First, autonomy earns nothing extra here that is not already in Mobility's margin glide - Uber discloses no AV revenue, so no line can carry it. Second, the stated multi-year autonomy commitment of more than $10bn is booked nowhere; at face value that is about $4.80 a share of spending the model never charges. Third, the share count is held flat although Uber is buying back stock, which understates every case including this one.

Freight

Basis quarter$1.58B
Final quarter$2.60B
Implied CAGR+10%
Final revenue mix6%

Brokerage that connects carriers with shippers, reported gross so revenue is almost exactly bookings. It has been roughly flat for three years and has never made money at the segment line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.31B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.27B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.34B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.58B Reported
Freight brokerageTransportation management
Units 1571/qtr growing +1.0% per quarter Freight Gross Bookings, $1,571M in the June quarter, in millions of dollars.
Price per unit $1M drifting 0.0% per quarter Just over $1M of revenue per $1M of bookings: Freight is reported on a gross basis.
Freight

Latest: $2.60B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.28B
2024Q2 $1.27B
2024Q3 $1.31B
2024Q4 $1.27B
2025Q1 $1.26B
2025Q2 $1.26B
2025Q3 $1.31B
2025Q4 $1.27B
2026Q1 $1.34B
2026Q2 $1.58B
2026Q3E $1.62B
2026Q4E $1.66B
2027Q1E $1.71B
2027Q2E $1.75B
2027Q3E $1.79B
2027Q4E $1.84B
2028Q1E $1.88B
2028Q2E $1.93B
2028Q3E $1.98B
2028Q4E $2.03B
2029Q1E $2.08B
2029Q2E $2.13B
2029Q3E $2.19B
2029Q4E $2.24B
2030Q1E $2.30B
2030Q2E $2.36B
2030Q3E $2.41B
2030Q4E $2.48B
2031Q1E $2.54B
2031Q2E $2.60B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Freight is about 3% of revenue and has produced a segment operating loss in every reported quarter, so it moves the fair value very little in any direction.
  • It is kept as its own vertical rather than folded away because Uber reports it as one of three segments, and removing it would break the reconciliation to consolidated revenue.
  • The 25% year-on-year bookings growth in the June quarter comes off a multi-year freight recession rather than from share gains, so it is not extrapolated.
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