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UBER · Forward model · Delivery · Bear case

What has to happen in Delivery

Model as of

This page changes Delivery inside the complete UBER model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UBER forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $63.90 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $7.58B 39% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $17.31B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Bookings growth halves from here, the Mobility revenue margin never recovers from the 2026 accounting change, segment margins run five points below what Uber reported in June, and Delivery Hero lands worse than its own perimeter suggests. The exit multiple de-rates to 2.6x terminal revenue. Fair value $63.90 - below the current price, which is what a genuine growth stall looks like.

Delivery

Basis quarter$5.25B
Final quarter$7.58B
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix39%

Food, grocery, alcohol, convenience and retail delivery, plus the advertising sold against it. Same equation as Mobility, and the revenue margin has risen almost every quarter as advertising and Uber One have grown into it.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $4.48B Reported
2025 Q4 $4.89B Reported
2026 Q1 $5.07B Reported
2026 Q2 $5.25B Reported
Restaurant deliveryGrocery & RetailAdvertising
Units 27463/qtr growing +3.8% per quarter Delivery Gross Bookings, $27,463M in the June quarter, in millions of dollars.
Price per unit $190983 drifting +0.3% per quarter Revenue per $1M of bookings: a 19.10% revenue margin, up from 18.16% two years ago.
Delivery

Latest: $7.58B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $3.21B
2024Q2 $3.29B
2024Q3 $3.47B
2024Q4 $3.77B
2025Q1 $3.78B
2025Q2 $4.10B
2025Q3 $4.48B
2025Q4 $4.89B
2026Q1 $5.07B
2026Q2 $5.25B
2026Q3E $5.35B
2026Q4E $5.46B
2027Q1E $5.57B
2027Q2E $5.67B
2027Q3E $5.78B
2027Q4E $5.89B
2028Q1E $6.00B
2028Q2E $6.12B
2028Q3E $6.23B
2028Q4E $6.35B
2029Q1E $6.46B
2029Q2E $6.58B
2029Q3E $6.70B
2029Q4E $6.82B
2030Q1E $6.94B
2030Q2E $7.07B
2030Q3E $7.19B
2030Q4E $7.32B
2031Q1E $7.45B
2031Q2E $7.58B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The Delivery revenue margin has climbed from 18.16% to 19.10% over the ten reported quarters, which is the advertising and Uber One story showing up in a disclosed number rather than in a narrative.
  • Uber does not publish Delivery order counts or Delivery-only trips - Trips and Monthly Active Platform Consumers are consolidated across both segments - so Gross Bookings is the only per-segment volume that exists.
  • Grocery and Retail is reported inside Delivery and is not sized separately, so the model cannot show the mix shift the company talks about.
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