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UBER · Forward model · Delivery Hero · Bear case

What has to happen in Delivery Hero

Model as of

This page changes Delivery Hero inside the complete UBER model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UBER forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $63.90 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $1.25B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $759M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Bookings growth halves from here, the Mobility revenue margin never recovers from the 2026 accounting change, segment margins run five points below what Uber reported in June, and Delivery Hero lands worse than its own perimeter suggests. The exit multiple de-rates to 2.6x terminal revenue. Fair value $63.90 - below the current price, which is what a genuine growth stall looks like.

Delivery Hero

Basis quarter$0
Final quarter$1.25B
Final revenue mix6%

The pending all-cash takeover of Delivery Hero. Uber acquires 50 markets carrying $42bn of 2025 Gross Merchandise Value; a further 14 overlapping markets go to SSW Partners and are not acquired. It nearly doubles the markets where Uber runs both mobility and delivery.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $0 Reported
2025 Q4 $0 Reported
2026 Q1 $0 Reported
2026 Q2 $0 Reported
Local food deliveryQuick commerceAdvertising
Units 10500/qtr growing +2.5% per quarter $42bn of 2025 bookings in the 50 markets Uber acquires, per quarter. Excludes the 14 sold to SSW.
Price per unit $180000 drifting +0.4% per quarter An 18.0% take rate, just under Uber's own 19.1%. No rate is disclosed for the acquired markets.
Delivery Hero

Latest: $1.25B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $0.00
2024Q2 $0.00
2024Q3 $0.00
2024Q4 $0.00
2025Q1 $0.00
2025Q2 $0.00
2025Q3 $0.00
2025Q4 $0.00
2026Q1 $0.00
2026Q2 $0.00
2026Q3E $0.00
2026Q4E $0.00
2027Q1E $0.00
2027Q2E $0.00
2027Q3E $0.00
2027Q4E $1.52B
2028Q1E $1.50B
2028Q2E $1.48B
2028Q3E $1.46B
2028Q4E $1.45B
2029Q1E $1.43B
2029Q2E $1.41B
2029Q3E $1.39B
2029Q4E $1.37B
2030Q1E $1.35B
2030Q2E $1.33B
2030Q3E $1.31B
2030Q4E $1.29B
2031Q1E $1.27B
2031Q2E $1.25B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Delivery Hero is not owned. The line carries zero across every historical quarter and starts five quarters out, the second half of 2027 the company guided to.
  • The 14 markets going to SSW Partners for about $1.6bn - $11bn of 2025 bookings - are excluded from this line, which is why it starts from $42bn rather than the $53bn Delivery Hero runs today.
  • Net cash in this model is already reduced by the $13.7bn consideration, so switching this vertical off would leave the valuation paying for something it never bought.
  • Delivery Hero's own debt is not disclosed in Uber's announcement and is not modelled here; net cash therefore understates what the combined balance sheet would carry.
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