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UBER · Forward model · Freight · Bull case

What has to happen in Freight

Model as of

This page changes Freight inside the complete UBER model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UBER forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $181.02 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $2.36B 6% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $775M EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Cross-platform density does what Uber says it does, Delivery bookings hold their acceleration a while longer, margins run three points above June's, and Delivery Hero converges on Uber's own Delivery economics. Exit at 3.6x - barely above base, because the case is meant to be about the business rather than about guessing a 2031 multiple. Fair value $181.02. Note that the multiple here is 16.8x terminal operating income, LOWER than base: the upside is earnings, not re-rating.

Freight

Basis quarter$1.58B
Final quarter$2.36B
Implied CAGR+8%
Final revenue mix6%

Brokerage that connects carriers with shippers, reported gross so revenue is almost exactly bookings. It has been roughly flat for three years and has never made money at the segment line.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $1.31B Reported
2025 Q4 $1.27B Reported
2026 Q1 $1.34B Reported
2026 Q2 $1.58B Reported
Freight brokerageTransportation management
Units 1571/qtr growing +1.0% per quarter Freight Gross Bookings, $1,571M in the June quarter, in millions of dollars.
Price per unit $1M drifting 0.0% per quarter Just over $1M of revenue per $1M of bookings: Freight is reported on a gross basis.
Freight

Latest: $2.36B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $1.28B
2024Q2 $1.27B
2024Q3 $1.31B
2024Q4 $1.27B
2025Q1 $1.26B
2025Q2 $1.26B
2025Q3 $1.31B
2025Q4 $1.27B
2026Q1 $1.34B
2026Q2 $1.58B
2026Q3E $1.61B
2026Q4E $1.65B
2027Q1E $1.68B
2027Q2E $1.71B
2027Q3E $1.75B
2027Q4E $1.78B
2028Q1E $1.82B
2028Q2E $1.86B
2028Q3E $1.89B
2028Q4E $1.93B
2029Q1E $1.97B
2029Q2E $2.01B
2029Q3E $2.05B
2029Q4E $2.09B
2030Q1E $2.13B
2030Q2E $2.18B
2030Q3E $2.22B
2030Q4E $2.26B
2031Q1E $2.31B
2031Q2E $2.36B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • Freight is about 3% of revenue and has produced a segment operating loss in every reported quarter, so it moves the fair value very little in any direction.
  • It is kept as its own vertical rather than folded away because Uber reports it as one of three segments, and removing it would break the reconciliation to consolidated revenue.
  • The 25% year-on-year bookings growth in the June quarter comes off a multi-year freight recession rather than from share gains, so it is not extrapolated.
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