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UBER · Forward model · Mobility · Bear case

What has to happen in Mobility

Model as of

This page changes Mobility inside the complete UBER model. Every other vertical, corporate programme and valuation assumption stays in the selected portfolio case.

UBER forward model
Horizon
Consolidated fair value $63.90 all other verticals held in this portfolio case
Final-quarter revenue $9.43B 48% of company revenue
Explicit segment contribution $33.85B EBITDA less segment capex, before corporate items

Bookings growth halves from here, the Mobility revenue margin never recovers from the 2026 accounting change, segment margins run five points below what Uber reported in June, and Delivery Hero lands worse than its own perimeter suggests. The exit multiple de-rates to 2.6x terminal revenue. Fair value $63.90 - below the current price, which is what a genuine growth stall looks like.

Mobility

Basis quarter$7.36B
Final quarter$9.43B
Implied CAGR+5%
Final revenue mix48%

Rides. Revenue is Gross Bookings times the revenue margin Uber itself defines and publishes, and both halves are disclosed every quarter. Autonomy lives here rather than in a line of its own, because an AV trip is a Mobility trip on a different cost base.

Last four quarters
2025 Q3 $7.68B Reported
2025 Q4 $8.20B Reported
2026 Q1 $6.80B Reported
2026 Q2 $7.36B Reported
RidesFinancial partnerships productsAdvertising
Units 28988/qtr growing +3.2% per quarter Mobility Gross Bookings, $28,988M in the June quarter. Units here are millions of dollars of bookings.
Price per unit $253999 drifting +0.2% per quarter Revenue per $1M of bookings: a 25.40% revenue margin, which is Uber's own defined measure.
Mobility

Latest: $9.43B (2031Q2E)

Period Value
2024Q1 $5.63B
2024Q2 $6.13B
2024Q3 $6.41B
2024Q4 $6.91B
2025Q1 $6.50B
2025Q2 $7.29B
2025Q3 $7.68B
2025Q4 $8.20B
2026Q1 $6.80B
2026Q2 $7.36B
2026Q3E $7.47B
2026Q4E $7.57B
2027Q1E $7.67B
2027Q2E $7.77B
2027Q3E $7.87B
2027Q4E $7.97B
2028Q1E $8.07B
2028Q2E $8.17B
2028Q3E $8.28B
2028Q4E $8.38B
2029Q1E $8.48B
2029Q2E $8.58B
2029Q3E $8.69B
2029Q4E $8.79B
2030Q1E $8.90B
2030Q2E $9.00B
2030Q3E $9.11B
2030Q4E $9.22B
2031Q1E $9.32B
2031Q2E $9.43B

Assumptions & reasoning

  • The June 2026 revenue margin of 25.40% is not comparable to the 29.90% a year earlier: a business-model change moved several markets to net revenue recognition, which the company says cut total revenue growth by 8 percentage points with no effect on bookings or profit.
  • Autonomy is deliberately not a separate vertical. Uber discloses no AV revenue, and an autonomous trip that replaces a human one already sits inside these Gross Bookings - a separate line would count the same trip twice.
  • Uber's stated multi-year autonomy commitment of more than $10 billion across equity, fleet offtake and infrastructure is press-reported rather than disclosed on a schedule, so this model books no separate programme for it. At $10bn it is about $4.80 a share if it returned nothing.
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