UBER · Forward model · Delivery
What has to happen in Delivery
Model as of
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Delivery
Basis quarter$5.25B
Final quarter$11.35B
Implied CAGR+17%
Final revenue mix38%
Food, grocery, alcohol, convenience and retail delivery, plus the advertising sold against it. Same equation as Mobility, and the revenue margin has risen almost every quarter as advertising and Uber One have grown into it.
Last four quarters
2025 Q3
$4.48B
Reported
2025 Q4
$4.89B
Reported
2026 Q1
$5.07B
Reported
2026 Q2
$5.25B
Reported
Restaurant deliveryGrocery & RetailAdvertising
Units
27463/qtr
growing +3.8% per quarter
Delivery Gross Bookings, $27,463M in the June quarter, in millions of dollars.
Price per unit
$190983
drifting +0.3% per quarter
Revenue per $1M of bookings: a 19.10% revenue margin, up from 18.16% two years ago.
Delivery
Latest: $11.35B (2031Q2E)
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| 2024Q1 | $3.21B |
| 2024Q2 | $3.29B |
| 2024Q3 | $3.47B |
| 2024Q4 | $3.77B |
| 2025Q1 | $3.78B |
| 2025Q2 | $4.10B |
| 2025Q3 | $4.48B |
| 2025Q4 | $4.89B |
| 2026Q1 | $5.07B |
| 2026Q2 | $5.25B |
| 2026Q3E | $5.46B |
| 2026Q4E | $5.68B |
| 2027Q1E | $5.91B |
| 2027Q2E | $6.15B |
| 2027Q3E | $6.40B |
| 2027Q4E | $6.65B |
| 2028Q1E | $6.92B |
| 2028Q2E | $7.19B |
| 2028Q3E | $7.47B |
| 2028Q4E | $7.77B |
| 2029Q1E | $8.07B |
| 2029Q2E | $8.38B |
| 2029Q3E | $8.71B |
| 2029Q4E | $9.05B |
| 2030Q1E | $9.40B |
| 2030Q2E | $9.76B |
| 2030Q3E | $10.14B |
| 2030Q4E | $10.53B |
| 2031Q1E | $10.93B |
| 2031Q2E | $11.35B |
Assumptions & reasoning
- The Delivery revenue margin has climbed from 18.16% to 19.10% over the ten reported quarters, which is the advertising and Uber One story showing up in a disclosed number rather than in a narrative.
- Uber does not publish Delivery order counts or Delivery-only trips - Trips and Monthly Active Platform Consumers are consolidated across both segments - so Gross Bookings is the only per-segment volume that exists.
- Grocery and Retail is reported inside Delivery and is not sized separately, so the model cannot show the mix shift the company talks about.